248 
FXUS63 KLBF 171907
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
207 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2002

...FCST CHALLENGE CONCERNS HOW HIGH TEMPS WL GO NXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
AND EXTENT OF COOLING ALNG W/THREAT OF PCPN FLWG FROPA THIS 
WEEKEND...

1800 UTC SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC LOW PRES CNTRD OVR SCNTRL SD 
WITH QSTNRY SFC FNT EXTDG WWD THRU SWRN SD...AND WK CDFNT CONTG SLO 
SEWD PUSH THRU NERN SD. ERN PUSH OF SFC FNT BEING SUPPORTED BY COOL 
OUTFLOW FM CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVR ND. 

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY LKLY TO RMN WELL N OF LBF CWA NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AS LRG AND PERSISTENT UPR RDG RMNS ANCHORED OVR CNTRL RCKYS 
INTO WCNTRL HI PLNS...KEEPING BEST BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RING OF FIRE 
MAINLY OVR NRN PLNS.

SKIES NXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHD RMN CLR-MSTLY CLR WITH SIG DIURNAL TEMP 
SWINGS AS SFC DEW PNTS SLOWLY LWR THRU PD AND AS SFC WNDS SLOLY VEER 
INTO SLY-SWLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. OVRNGT LOWS MOST AREAS NXT TWO 
NGTS SHD RANGE FM MID 60S-ARND 70...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON THU LKLY 
TO ECLIPSE 100F MOST AREAS.

WK SHRT WV TROF/RIDGE RUNNER LKLY TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR 
SWD PROGRESSION OF DECAYING COOL FNT/SFC TROF THU NGT INTO FRI... 
WITH DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LKLY TO BCM QSTNRY ALNG NE/SD BORDER BY FRI 
AFTN.  VRY WRM H7 TEMPS AND LMTD LOW AND MID LVL MOIST SHD BE 
SUFFICIENT TO MINIMIZE ANY THREAT OF CONVECT ACTVTY ALNG/NR FNTAL 
CONVERGENCE ZN OVR LBF CWA...BUT SMALL THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST JUST 
TO NORTH AND EAST OF CWA WHERE COOLER MID LVL TEMPS AND SOMEWHAT HIR 
SFC MOIST POOLING WL RESIDE. ANY COOLING BHND THIS FNT WL BE LMTD AT 
BEST...WITH NELY SFC WNDS ADVECTING VRY HOT TEMPS WHICH HAV RESIDED 
OVR SD PST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE...AFTN HIGHS ON FRI LKLY TO BE 
CLOSE THOSE EXPECTED ON THU.

MID/LONG RANGE MODELS CONT TO ADVERTIZE GRDL WEAKENING OF UPR 
RDG...WITH AXIS OF RDG TO PUSH SLGTLY S OF LBF CWA THIS WEEKEND.  
THIS SHD ALLOW STGR PUSH OF COOLER AIR...BTR THERMODYNAMIC AND 
DYNAMIC SUPPORT...AND BTR MONSOONAL MOIST TAP ROTATING ARND 
PERIPHERY OF UPR RDG TO PUSH INTO AREA. RESULT WL BE SLO COOLING 
TREND ALNG WITH INCRG THREAT OF SCT PCPN LTR THIS WEEKEND INTO 
ERY-MID NXT WK.        

.LBF...NONE.

WERT