279 FXUS62 KILM 160540 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC 140 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2002 IMPRESSIVE ESTIMATED RAFL TOTALS YDAY EVENING W/ TSRA TRAINING ACROSS SERN NC. JET MAX EXITING THE NE NC COAST HAS HELPED DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. NOT EVERYONE SAW THE RAFL SINCE THE CONVECTION WAS CONFINED TO A W-E BOUNDARY ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SE NC. UPPER TROF DROPPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE DEEP S AND THE SE US. AT THE SFC... HIGH DWPTS AND A WEAK TROF EXIST ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING ANY POPS...FEEL THAT THE SMALL-SCALE BOUNDARIES AROUND ALONG W/ THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING TO POP A FEW SHRA/TSRA TODAY. WILL SEE BETTER DRYING IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT AND WED...WHICH DO NOT REQUIRE ANY POPS. THE NEXT FOCUS FOR IS HEAT. HIGH DWPTS AND TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE 90S THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO IT WILL BE STEAMY. FOR TODAY DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE MID 70S COUPLED W/ TEMPS IN THE MID 90S YIELD INDICES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SHOULD BE NEAR CRITERIA ALL AREAS EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY W/ THE NEXT PACKAGE. WILL LEAVE ANY BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED TO THE DAY SHIFT. MARINE: STILL A DECENT SWELL AT 41001...BUT CLOSER TO THE COAST SEAS HAVE DROPPED OFF NICELY. MAY SEE A MINIMAL BACK-SWELL FROM ARTHUR THOUGH THIS STORM IS MOVING FARTHER AWAY AT A GOOD CLIP. OTHERWISE PLAN ON FOLLOWING AVN WIND FIELD THIS PACKAGE. EXPECTING SW TO W WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BACK THE WIND. OVERALL THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SW WED NIGHT INTO THU. COULD SEE THE PRES GRAD TIGHTEN SOME DURING THU AFTN BETWEEN THE INLAND TROF AND BERMUDA HIGH. TIGHTER PRES GRAD WILL CARRY INTO FRI...THEN SHOULD SEE MORE OF A WLY FLOW FOR SAT AS THE TROF SHIFTS E AND FRONT HANGING UP N OF HERE. FCSTID = 29 PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... ILM 93 74 94 75 / 20 10 10 10 LBT 94 73 97 74 / 20 10 10 10 FLO 95 73 98 74 / 20 10 10 10 MYR 90 75 91 76 / 20 10 10 10 .ILM... NC...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZNS. SC...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZNS. PFAFF