789 
FXUS63 KLSX 150856
AFDSTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
340 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2002

MID/UPR LOW SPINNING ABT OVR SW AR ATTM.  MDLS IN RELATIVELY GD 
AGREEMENT WKNG AND LIFTING THE LOW NWD THRU WED THEN SHUNTING THE 
ASSOCD SHRTWV TROF EWD IN RSPNS TO INCRSG NW FLOW ALF.  THE MAIN 
QUESTIONS RMN WHAT THE PCPN CHCS WL BE AND AFFECT OF INCRSG 
MSTR/CLDS ON TMPS.

A FEW SURPRISE ISOLD TSRA DVLP OVR THE ERN OZARKS YDA EVNG...DUE TO 
WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME WK UNSLOPE VIA THE LOW LVL NE FLOW AND PSBLY 
SOME ADDED DESTABILIZATION FM COOLING OF MID CLDS ACRS THE RGN.  THE 
PURE FACT THAT THIS OCCURRED...AND GIVEN THE LIFTING LOW 
TDA...INCRSG LL MSTR AND SOME CONTD WK UPSLOPE...ARGUES FOR AT LEAST 
SOME LOW POPS THIS AFT ACRS THIS RGN.  CONTD DRY ELSEWHERE AS THE 
MIDWEST HI STILL IMPARTS A STG INFLUENCE ALTHO THINK WELL SEE MORE 
CU OVR MID MO.  HIGHS TDA ARND 2-3 DEGS WRMR THAN SUNDAY.

AS THE UPR LOW CONTS TO MIGRATE NWD TNGT THE LOW LVL ANTICYCLONE WL 
BEGIN SHIFTING EWD INTO THE OH VLY AND THIS WL RESULT IN INCRSG SLY 
FLOW INTO TUE...WHICH IN TURN WL ALLOW LL MOISTURE TO SPRD BACK INTO 
THE RGN IN ERNEST BY TUE AFT.  THERE ARE ALSO SOME HINTS THAT THE 
BNDRY ACRS THE LWR MS VLY WL LIKEWISE RETURN NWD USHERING IN THE 
HIER SFC DPTS ALTHO THE REFLECTIONS ARE SUBTLE AND DONT HV GREAT 
CONTINUITY.  STILL WITH THE INCRSG MSTR AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY 
AND THE PRESENCE OF THE LIFTING UPR SYS WL KP THE POPS GOING.  TMPS 
SHUD CONT TO MOD UPWARD A FEW MORE DEGS...THE PSBL EXCEPTION BEING 
IN THE SOUTH WHERE MDLS INDCTG EXTNSV CLDS.  THE GREATEST PCPN CHC 
ON WED LKS TO BE ACRS SE MO INTO FAR SW/SC IL WITH THE MDLS INDCTG 
SOME DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACRS THIS RGN IN ASSOCN WITH FLOW ARND 
THE GULF CST RDG AND MO UPR LOW. 

ONLY MINOR TWEEKS TO RMNG PDS AS FCST STILL WITHIN THE REALM OF MDL 
FCST SCENARIOS.  TMPS TO RMN SEASONABLE.

.STL...NONE
GLASS