000 
FXUS65 KMSO 060300
AFDMSO

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
900 PM MDT FRI JUL 5 2002

.SHORT TERM...NO UPDATES. RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST ID NOT
DEPICTED BY MESOETA HELPED CUMULUS BREAK THROUGH CAP OVER LEMHI
COUNTY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY EXITED THIS AREA AND
STORM MOTION WILL KEEP ACTIVITY JUST SOUTH OF SILVER BOW COUNTY.
CONVECTION OCCURRED NEAR A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST
MT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8 DEGREES C/KM. CIRRUS
DRIFTING THROUGH NORTHWEST MT TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY
TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA. UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST WILL
PROVIDE SLIGHT BACKING TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ALLOWS MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO CREEP INTO THE CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST MT. STRONGER SURFACE HEATING...
A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN CLEARWATERS...
BITTERROOTS AND SAPPHIRES/PINTLARS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK AND ONLY THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
DOWNBURST WINDS IN LARGER CELLS DUE TO INVERTED-V SOUNDING
SIGNATURES.  BOLDT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT FLATTENED IT MOVES EAST.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW STRONG THE RIDGE REBOUNDS. THE NEW AVN RUN
HAS THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN MUCH STRONGER THEN THE EARLIER RUN OF
THE MRF. CURRENTLY SHOWING VERY LITTLE WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED. GILCHRIST

.MSO...NONE.

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB BBE 047/087 052/091 056/085 38000232
     UUUU 054/088 053/091 055/091 055/092 3300000000
FCA BBE 043/083 049/088 055/083 38000232
     UUUU 052/085 050/086 051/086 053/087 3300000000
POL BBE 049/084 054/088 057/083 38000222
     UUUU 055/086 054/086 054/086 056/087 3300000000
MSO BBB 047/088 055/091 057/085 38002222
     UUUU 056/088 055/090 057/090 057/091 3300000000
HMM BBB 047/089 055/092 057/086 38002222
     UUUU 056/089 055/091 057/091 057/092 3300000000
BTM BBB 042/087 049/090 053/090 38023232
     UUUU 049/088 048/088 050/088 050/089 3300000000
ORO UBB 055/089 059/093 063/089 38000221
     UUUU 062/090 061/090 063/090 063/091 3300000000
GRV UBB 052/084 055/089 058/085 38000221
     UUUU 058/086 057/086 059/086 059/087 3300000000
SMN BBB 054/090 055/094 056/092 38022222
     UUUU 053/085 052/085 054/085 054/085 3300000000