768 
FXUS61 KCAR 020142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
940 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2002

.UPDATED...
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING FORECAST CURRENT.  WILL DROP TSTMS FROM THE 
FORECAST.  CURRENTLY ALL LOCAL AREA TSTMS ARE WELL OUT TO SEA.  AN 
AREA OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY WILL MOVE INTO THE 
NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.  WILL BACK OFF A BIT ON POPS.  AT THIS 
TIME THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE BREAKING UP.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS 
TIME.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...
SHORT RNG GUID IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT THRU 24 HRS. 1ST 24 HRS WILL
GEAR TO THE ETA/RUC CYCLES. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...WILL LEAN CLOSER
TO AVN/GEM SOLNS.

RADAR TRENDS SHOW 2 DISTINCT AREAS OF RAFL W/ONE OVER NW & CNTL AREAS & THE
OTHER HUGGING ERN ME BORDER. SOME HVY RAFL IN THESE CONVECTIVE SHRA BANDS. A
FEW LTG STRIKES SHOWING UP THANKS IN PART TO COOL COLUMN FM H7 TO H5. SATL
WV IAMGERY SHOWING 1ST VORT MAX RIDING ACRS SRN & DOWNEAST AREAS W/2ND
VORT MAX RIDING SWD ACRS ST. LAWRENCE RVR HEADING TWD NNW ME. ETA & RUC
PICKED UP ON THIS FTRE WELL ALTHO ALL GUID NOT HANDLING PCPN PLACEMENT
WELL & THAT CAN BE EXPECTED W/THIS TYPE OF SETUP. WILL KEEP MNTN OF
SHRA/SCTD TSRA IN THRU 06Z & THEN SHOULD SEE THGS SETTLE DOWN AS NVA
MOVES IN & UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THRU THE MARITIMES. WILL NEED TO
MNTN FG TNGT WCH COULD BE DENSE ESP IF CWFA SEES SOME PARTIAL CLRG.

BIG DAY ON TUE W/DEDICATION CEREMONY FOR NEW BUILDING. COULD BE LOOKING
AT RECORD TEMPS (CAR IS 88 & HUL IS 92). WILL MNTN NR RECORD HIGHS ON
TUE. ETA BUFKIT GOES BONKERS W/CAPES HITTING AOA 3000 J/KG & LIS HITTING -6.
AVN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL W/CAPES OF 2500 J/KG ACRS THE CWFA. THERE IS A S/WV
THAT CUTS INTO UPPER RDG BUILDING E ACRS THE CWFA. LOOKING @ 12Z UA...TEMPS
ARE VERY WARM IN THE MID-UPPER LVLS ACRS CNTL CAN & NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS
AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CWFA TUE AFTN. AVN SHOWS THIS
WARM ALF WHILE ETA WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME MINOR COOLING WCH WOULD SUGGEST
TSRA POTENTIAL. WE BELIEVE AVN HAS BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS W/DRY & WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE ALF. NO POPS FOR TUE. IF ANYTHG DOES FIRE...IT WILL BE
ISOLD @ BEST & WELL N & W OF THE CWFA. CD FNT DROPS ACRS THE CWFA TUE NGT
INTO EARLY WED. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOLDOWN W/FROPA. SOME OMEGA NOTED
W/FROPA. AM NOT GOING TO PUT MNTN OF SHRA/TSRA AS AIRMASS PRETTY MUCH
UNCHGD. WED SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM & HUMID DAY BEFORE COOLDOWN.

EXTENDED PD: WILL INTRODUCE MNTN OF SHRA/TSRA WED NGT & EARLY THU MAINLY
AWAY FM THE CST W/ARRIVAL OF 2ND CD FNT. WK SFC WV ON THE FNT COULD ENHANCE
RAFL ACRS ERN ME ON THU & SLOW FNT UP. CD FNT ACRS CSTL AREAS THU EVNG. WILL
THROW IN SHRA/TSRA FOR ZNS 29-30 FOR THU. ECMWF/CAN GLOBAL/UKMET & NOW THE
AVN SUPPORT CAN HIGH PRES BUILDING SE TWD THE AREA FRI INTO SAT. TEMPS WILL
MUCH COOLER THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRES DRIFTS SE OFF LI ON SUN
W/RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PROVIDING A WARM UP SUN INTO NEXT MON.

COASTAL WATERS: NO HEADLINES. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE FOG TNGT INTO EARLY
TUE. RPRTS OF <1/2 MILE ALG THE CST ATTM. LOOKS LIKE SWLY FLOW INCG THU
NGT AHEAD OF APCHG CD FNT. VEERING WNDS TO NNW DIR THU INTO FRI W/INCG
GRDNT.

.CAR...NONE

NORTON/FITZSIMMONS