940 
FXUS64 KBMX 012009
AFDBHM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
309 PM CDT MON JUL 01 2002

WEAK VORT MAX WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY FIRING UP ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE AND NORTH GEORGIA...AND
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.  WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS HIGH...AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME STORMS BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. BEYOND TONIGHT...MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER TROF OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.   AVN MODEL STILL
SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WILL FORECAST SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS IN THIS
REGION. MRF BRINGS AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING
THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS
AREA.  HOW MUCH THIS GULF SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER IS
UNCLEAR...AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.


HIGHS/LOWS WILL SEE LITTLE VARIATION DURING THE WEEK WITH READINGS
NEAR NORMAL.

HSV 70 91 70 91/ 20 30 20 30
BHM 70 91 70 91/ 20 30 20 30
MGM 71 91 71 91/ 20 30 20 30

.BHM...NONE.

58