000 FXUS65 KPSR 272229 AFDPSR AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-280545- SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 325 PM MST THU JUN 27 2002 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIR WARM AND QUITE DRY OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THIS...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY... PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY MIDWEEK. AT PRESENT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY STORMS NEXT WEEK WOULD GENERALLY PRODUCE SPOTTY AND LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. .DISCUSSION... HOT AND RATHER DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA... AS WELL AS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY. THIS THANKS TO STRONG UPPER HIGH TO THE SE. MOISTURE HAS BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR E AND SE...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY GET RECYCLED EACH AFTERNOON E OF PHX CWFA INTO THE WEEKEND GIVING SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAILY STORMS. WILL PUT SOME CLOUDS INTO ERN GILA COUNTY OVER THE WEEKEND...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY SKIES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND AS WELL DUE TO STAGNANT HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES. DIURNAL WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE ALSO ANTICIPATED...MAINLY DRIVEN BY DAILY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. TURNING TO THE EXTENDED...UPPER TROUGH HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE AVN AND ETA...WITH THE LATTER MOVING TROUGH FURTHER E...WHICH WOULD BE A REAL CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALY FOR THE FIRST OF JULY. SO...WILL BUY MORE INTO THE AVN TREND OF LOW DRIFTING SWWD OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST WITH TIME...WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY GIVE US MORE OF A SLY FLOW. IN ADDITION...AVN MOVING WHAT APPEAR TO BE SPURIOUS VORT MAXES UP TOWARDS SW AZ...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY OF THESE MIGHT POSSIBLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY NW MEXICAN MCS DEVELOPMENT AS WE TRUDGE THRU NEXT WEEK. AVN ALSO PUSHES MORE H5 MOISTURE INTO THE ERN CWFA AS NEXT WEEK EVOLVES. SO...IN LIGHT OF ALL THE ABOVE...DECIDED TO LEAVE CHANCE OF TSTMS S-CENTRAL PORTIONS...FIRST IN SRN GILA COUNTY BY MONDAY...AND THE MARICOPA COUNTY ZONES BY MIDWEEK. ESTLE .PSR...NONE.