000 
FXUS65 KPSR 242227
AFDPSR
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-250545-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 PM MST MON JUN 24 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK 
...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK 
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY 
AND WEDNESDAY.     
 
.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST NEAR OUR AREA WHILE 
BUILDING TO OUR NORTH...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWEST 
FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY...ONE CENTERS ON 
THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS WV/IR 
IMAGES CONFIRM PRESENCE OF SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS OVER BAJA AND 
ADJACENT EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. 
AVN/ETA SUGGEST HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER FORECAST AREA TUESDAY 
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AVN FORECASTING HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN OUT 
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE ETA MORE PERSISTENT WITH HIGH 
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS FAR 
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AZ TODAY BASED ON GOES PW 
IMAGES...AND AVN/ETA FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER 
ALL OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN DECREASE BY LATE WEDNESDAY 
INTO THURSDAY. WITH MOST OF MOISTURE INCREASE AT MID-UPPER LEVELS. 
FOR NOW...FEEL PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY IS GOOD IDEA TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY MOST OF AZ PTN...AND HAVE MADE THAT MINOR CHANGE TO THE 
ZONE PACKAGE.  MODELS FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE ABOUT 1C WARMER 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. DO NOT FEEL CLOUDS WILL 
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON DAYTIME HIGHS...BUT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE 
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. WILL GO WITH SIMILAR MINS AND MAXES NEXT 
THREE DAYS AS MIXING DEPTH TEMPS AND WIND NOT EXPECTED TO VARY MUCH. 

IN EXTENDED...DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WX FRIDAY THROUGH 
SUNDAY...BUT DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 
NEXT MONDAY (DAY 7). IF THAT OCCURS...NOTICEABLE MOISTURE INCREASE 
IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...WILL GROUP FRIDAY THRU MONDAY AND STICK WITH 
A DRY FORECAST ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DG

.PSR...NONE.