000 
FXUS63 KFSD 162058
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 
355 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2002

THINGS GOT RATHER BUSY HERE ALL OF A SUDDEN. THE GENERAL FLOW 
THROUGH THE WEEK MARKS AN UNSTABLE PATTERN. IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT...
STRONG CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL 
NEB...ON THE NOSE OF SOME FAIRLY DECENT LOW LVL MSTR ADV AND VEERING 
PROFILES. HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS IT WILL HUG THE NEB 
AND SD BRDR FOR AWHILE. IN THE NE CWA...PLENTY OF CU HAS FIRED IN MN 
DUE TO THE WRN GRTLKS SHORTWV DIVING DOWN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. MSP 88D 
DOES SHOW SOME RETURNS FURTHER TO THE EAST...SO WITH THE DAYTIME 
HTG...MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHRA/TS ARND KMML AND 
KMWM. OTHERWISE...NEXT SHORTWV...CRNTLY VISIBLE IN NERN MT AND SWRN 
SASKATCHEWAN WITH CONVECTION...WL DIVE DOWN THE NW FLOW TNGT. ALL 
SDNGS THRU THE CWA START TO VEER TNGT WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND GOOD 
WAA RETURN. CANT IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION LATER TNGT 
WITH THIS KIND OF SCENARIO SO DEFINITELY MENTIONED.

ON MONDAY...A FEW MRNG TS MAY LINGER BEFORE EXITING THE ERN 
CWA...LEAVING OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS. NEXT 
STRONG SHORTWV...VERY CONSISTENT ON THE ETA...MOVES INTO THE FSD CWA 
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW. AGAIN...MODEL SNDGS ARE STRONGLY VEERED. 
DIRECTION SHEAR IS STRONG...ALBEIT SPEED SHEAR IS KIND OF LACKING. 
HIGHER DEWPTS BEGIN TO USHER IN GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER CHC OF PCPN.
SAME SCENARIO TUESDAY...MAYBE SOME LINGERING MRNG TS IN THE EAST. 
THE TUE AVN PROG NOISE WAS BASICALLY IGNORED AND WENT WITH THE ETA. 
AGAIN...TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER WARM WITH GOOD SOUTH WINDS AND RISING 
850MB TEMPS.

THINGS GET REAL INTERESTING TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ETA IS MORE 
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE SFC FRONT INTO THE FSD CWA MON NIGHT AND 
TUESDAY...THEN WASHING IT OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA...WITH A 
SECOND SFC FRONT MOVG IN TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE 
ALOFT. THE AVN LEAVES THE SFC FRONT TO THE WEST MON NIGHT AND 
TUESDAY...BRINGING THE WHOLE THING INTO THE CWA TUE NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY AND STALLING IT. THE ETA ALSO STALLS THE SECOND SFC FRONT 
IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDN...BOTH MODELS SHOW STRONG MID LVL 
CONVERGENCE...REALLY BEGINNING LATE TUE NIGHT AND LASTING THRU 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE 
WRLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. ETA SOLN MAY BE A BIT BETTER...IN SEPARTING 
THE TWO FRONTS...WASHING OUT THE FIRST ONE ALONG I 29 ON TUE...AND 
BRINGING IN A SECOND TUE NIGHT AND WED. THAT IS PRETTY COMMON FOR 
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS WELL AS HANGING THESE BNDRYS UP ALONG I 90. 
ANYWAY YOU LOOK AT IT...AS LONG AS THE SW FLOW ALOFT EXISTS...WHICH 
IT DOES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK...THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY 
AND MSTR...AND IT WONT TAKE MUCH OF A BNDRY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. 
MRF FINALLY CLEARS THINGS OUT VERY LATE IN THE PD...WITH COOL HIGH 
PRESSURE DRAINING DOWN FROM NRN MN ON SUNDAY. ALSO AS AN 
AFTERTHOUGHT...LEFT CONVECTION OUT ON FRIDAY DUE TO PROGGED SHORTWV 
RIDGING.

.FSD...NONE 
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