000 
FXUS64 KOHX 161907
AFDBNA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
200 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2002

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS WAS OVER MID 
TN...MAINLY MID LEVEL. A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN HAD 
OCCURRED...THE RESULT OF MID/UPPER SHEAR ZONE. SHORTWAVES ARE COMING 
TOWARD THE REGION FROM BOTH THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS. SOME OF THIS 
EVERY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH 
WHILE SOME ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GULF COAST. A SURFACE 
TROUGH WAS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...A 
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER KY. 

PARTIAL CLEARING WAS NOTED IN NORTHWEST MID TN. THIS PERIOD OF LATE 
AFTERNOON SUN FOR SOME LOCATIONS WILL ALLOW CURRENTLY SLUGGISH 
TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY APPROACH FORECAST HIGHS. IT WILL ALSO 
CONTRIBUTE SOME DESTABILIZATION ALLOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM KY 
TO CONTINUE THEIR PROGRESS TOWARD TN. AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE 
INTO MID TN THIS EVENING...SURFACE TROUGH AND ANY UPPER SUPPORT WILL
WEAKEN. SO BEST CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BE 
IN NORTH MID TN...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING WEAKER AND 
SCATTERING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. DECISION ON EXACT 
RAIN CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE HELD OFF UNTIL ZONES ARE 
ISSUED...DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS.

LATER TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS 
A SURFACE HIGH FROM OUR NORTHWEST STARTS TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION. 
MONDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO 
LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP 
AND SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT OVER MID TN FROM THE 
SOUTH...SO WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST 
BY MIDWEEK. MORE WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD 
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. 
THEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS BRINGING A RETURN TO 
WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. AS THE SURFACE SLIDES OFF THE EAST 
COAST...A RETURN FLOW SETS UP ALLOWING A RETURN OF WARMTH AND USUAL 
HUMIDITY LATE WEEK. 

PRELIMS FOR COORDINATION
FIRST PERIOD POPS WILL BE ADJUSTED FOR RADAR TRENDS...
BNA BU 059/083 059/086 063 4000
CSV BU 054/077 052/081 058 5000

.BNA...NONE.
SH