000 
FXUS62 KILM 160651
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2002

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ROTATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AROUND THE 
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. AND BRING THE 
ENERGY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.  THROUGH TUESDAY...THESE WAVES LOOK 
TO DAMPEN IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  INSTABILITY IN FORECAST 
SOUNDINGS IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE EITHER. PLAN TO ELIMINATE 
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND GO WITH 20 POPS FOR 
MON AND MON NIGHT.  

SMALL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR TUESDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT 
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE EXTENDED 
FORECAST WILL BE DRY.  

CWF:  SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND TODAY SHOULD BRING A 
RETURN TO S-SW FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO 
TONIGHT.  WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST MON WITH A 
VERY WEAK GRADIENT SO VARIABLE WINDS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR MON.  

FCSTID = 31
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
ILM  88 65 86 69 /  00 10 20 20
LBT  90 63 88 67 /  00 10 20 20
FLO  91 63 90 67 /  00 10 20 20
MYR  86 66 86 70 /  00 10 20 20

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

RAN