000 
FXUS61 KBGM 160200
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1000 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2002

EARLIER CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED INTO AREAS OF RAIN WITH SOME APPARENT 
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS PCPN WILL CONTINUE 
TO WANE WITH SCT SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO 
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AND HEAVY PCPN BUT WILL WAIT TO ISSUE 
UNTIL RADAR SHOWS A GREATER DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE.

SPORER 

PREVIOUS AFD:
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UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON, WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.  MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED OFF AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.  SOME BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

GENERALLY TREND IS FOR UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AS IT MOVES NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA.  EXPECT CURRENT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, THEN
ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.  SO
EXPECT REFORMATION OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY.  RAM

.BGM...NONE.