000 
FXUS61 KBGM 121842
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
245 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2002

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWG SCTD POPCORN SHRA WITH A FEW TSRA ACRS CNTRL PA 
S OF THE POCONOES. A FEW SHRA CUD TURN INTO TSTMS IN NE PA LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON. FRNT WAS WORKG S THRU THE SRN TIER OF NY ATTM AND WILL 
PASS THRU NE PA BY THIS EVE AND STALL OUT ACRS NRN VA INTO SRN OH 
AND POINTS W. PRECIP WILL REMAIN SCTRD CLSE TO AND AHEAD OF THE 
FRNT. WILL HV AN EVENING PD TO HNDL THE SCTRD ACVTY IN THE CNTRL AND 
SRN ZONES. AFTER FRNT PASSES BY TONIGHT...SEE PLENTY OF SC CONTG 
ACRS C NY AND NE PA...ESP WITH MOIST NW FLO INTO THE HILLS OF SRN 
NY/NRN PA. SOME CLRG PSBL MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES. PLENTY OF CLDS 
WILL PERSIST THRU THU...ESP CNTRL AND SRN ZONES INTO NE PA. THERE 
WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN NRN CWA TWD SYR-UCA AND POINTS N THU AFTRN. 
EVEN IF NUMEROUS BREAKS DVLP THU...LOW-LVL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A 
RATHER COOL/MOIST LAYER CLSE TO 850 MB SHUD LEAD TO RAPID CU-SC 
DVLPMENT BY THU AFTERN WITH THE SFC HEATING. WILL HV CLDY OR MO CLDY 
ALL ZONES THU. 

NEXT SYS WAS CURRENTLY WORKG S AND E ACRS THE UPR PLAINS. THIS 
FEATURE WILL TRACK EAST THRU THU AND BEGIN TO INTERCEPT MORE AND 
MORE LOW AND MID MOISTURE AS IT REACHES THE E. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN TO 
BLOSSOM AND INCREASE AS THE WAVE HEADS E. NGM/ETA/AVN ALL DVLP A SFC 
LO ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL BNDRY ACRS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OFF 
THE NJ COAST BY FRI EVE. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A 500 MB CNTR DROPS INTO 
THE UPR OH VLLY WITH HGHT RISES ACRS NEW ENGLAND. THE HGHT RISES 
ACRS NEW ENGLAND STRENGTHEN A CONFLUENCE ZONE ACRS THE MARITIMES 
WHICH IN TURN INCREASES A JET ENTRANCE REGION CIRC IN ADVANCE OF THE 
SFC LO AND ASSCTD LL WAVE. THERMAL ADVECTIONS WILL INCREASE FRI OVR 
THE CWA WHICH WILL SUPPORT A SHOT OF SHRA/RAIN FRI AM. THEN DRIER 
AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THIS DYNAMICAL SUPPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE 
SCTD ACVTY FRI AFTRN. THIS IS THE GENERAL PICTURE PAINTED BY THE 
MODELS. 

W/ A DVLP SFC WAVE S OF THE REGION ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY...A LL 
SERLY FLO OF STABL AIR WILL GET ESTABLISHED OVR THE CWA THU NGT. THE 
FLO WILL TEND TO DAMPEN CHC/S FOR CONVECTIVE ACVTY THU NGT OVR THE 
CATSKILLS...POCONOES AND MUCH OF UPSTATE NY. SEE SOME SCTRD ACVTY 
WILL WORKI INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND PARTS OF NE PA THU NGT AND 
ERLY FRIDAY WHERE A MORE SRLY (INSTEAD OF SERLY) LL FLO ALLOWS FOR 
MORE LOW MOISTURE TO SNEAK AND CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INSTABILITY. WILL 
HV CHC-LIKLY POPS ACRS THE WRN PART OF BGM CWA THU NGT...
NO POPS IN THE ERN ZONES WITH THE STBL ERLY LL FLO.

WILL HV LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES FRIDAY FOR SHRA...ESP IN AM WHEN WAA 
SUPPORTED PRECIP SHIELD MOVES THRU. FOR FRIDAY AFTRN...AGAIN...WRN 
ZONES WILL HV THE MOST INSTABILITY AND HV CHC TRW- WITH ERN AND SRN 
ZONES HV JUST CHC RW- AS STBL ERLY FLO PERSISTS IN THESE AREAS.

.BGM...NONE. 

NICOSIA