000 
FXUS64 KMOB 111940
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
240 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

A WEAK TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE PANHANDLE COAST SHOWED 
UP NICELY ON VISBIBLE AND QUIKSCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS 
MORNING...NOW EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE DELTA. THE ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW 
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IS HELPING DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS 
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT JUST INLAND OF THE ALABAMA AND 
MISSISSIPPI COASTS. THE TROUGHS PROUD PARENTS ARE A QUASI 
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THAT INTERACTED WITH 
THE FLORIDA SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY...SPAWNING THE TROUGH. 

SAME SET UP IS TRYING TO HAPPEN TODAY OVER FLORIDA...BUT THE NEXT 
TROUGH WILL BE STYMIED BY LOW LEVEL SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE 
AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL KEEP HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN 
PLACE AGAIN TOMORROW. WENT WITH GENERAL GUIDANCE BLEND ON TEMPS. AS 
FOR THE MODELS...ETA SEEMED TO INTIALIZE THE PLACEMENT OF FLORIDA 
UPPER LOW...NEAR JAX...A LITTLE BETTER THAN AVIATION. WATER VAPOR 
LOOP SHOWS A SECOND BIT OF ENERGEY PINWHEELING AROUND THE MAIN LOW 
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF. BOTH ETA AND AVIATION PICKUP ON THIS...BUT 
ETA SHOWS THIS FEATURE AS DOMINANT BY TOMORROW AND SPINS UP SURFACE 
LOW BENEATH IT. FAVORING MORE CONSISTENT AVIATION WHICH KEEPS MAIN 
BAND OF WEATHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA UNDER DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT...BUT THE ETA SOLUTION BEARS WATCHING. IN ANY EVENT...THE NEXT 
BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A WEAK FRONT LATE MOVING THROUGH TENNESSEE 
VALLEY...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH 
NOT ONLY DELIVERS A LITTLE RAINFALL BUT MAY KNOCK HIGH TEMPS DOWN 
OUT OF THE 90S.

LOOKING AHEAD...FAIRLY DRY WEEKEND IS FOLLOWED BY WET START TO NEXT 
WEEK...AS MRF AND CANADIAN GEM BRING A STRONG SHORTWAVE DOWN THE 
NORTH WEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NOW.

MARINE...FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW IN STORE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH 
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PICKING UP AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY FRONT 
COMES DOWN.

FCSTID = 13
MOB   71  91  73  93 /  10  10   0  20
PNS   73  91  74  91 /  10  10   0  20
DTS   74  90  72  89 /  10  10   0  20
GZH   67  94  70  94 /   0   0   0  20
2R0   68  93  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
61A   67  94  67  92 /   0   0   0  20

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.