000 
FXUS61 KCLE 120633
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
234 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2002

TOUGH FCST TDA AS MODELS APPR TO BE HAVG TROUBLE WITH LTTL 
CONTINUITY FM RUN TO RUN.  ALTHO MOVEMENT OF 5H LOW FAIRLY SIMILAR 
BIG DIFFS WITH HOW SFC LOW IS HANDLED.  ETA/NGM DVLP A SOMEWHAT 
STRNGR UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES FURTHER NW THAN AVN 
DEPICTION WHICH DVLPS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROF SCENARIO ACRS FA.  
AVN SOL KEEPS BNDRY FURTHER S THAN OTHR MODELS WHICH ALSO HELP LIMIT 
CONVECTIVE PRECIP.  TAKING A LOOK AT JET PATTERN AVN MAY BE THE 
BETTER SOL LATER TDA THRU THU.  

CURRENTLY SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MOVG E ACRS CNTRL ZNS.  BNDRY PUSHES S 
OF LERI ARND 12Z.  MODELS SHOWG LTTL IN THE WAY OF UVV WITH WK NVW 
OVR AREA THIS AFT SO WL TRY TO LIMIT PRECIP TO AM HRS.  MAY SEE A 
LTTL INCR IN PRECIP COVERAGE TWD DAYBREAK AS BNDRY APPROACHES BUT 
STL ONLY CHC OR SCT POPS ERN 2/3 OF FA TDA.  AS NOTED ABV WL FOLLOW 
AVN SOL TGNT WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF FA DRY.  PRECIP COULD SNEAK 
INTO SRN AREAS TWD DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WL FOLLOW CURRENT DRY FCST.  
MORE CHC OR SCT WORDG THU INTO THU NGT.

TEMPS TOUGH AS CURRENT READINGS ONLY A FEW DEGREES FM GUID HIGHS. 
LATELY WARMER HAS BEEN BETTER AND WL CONTINUE THAT TREND TDA.  GUID 
LATER PDS IN GD AGREEMENT AND A GD STARTING POINT.

.CLE...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
$$

KUBINA