000 
FXUS61 KCAR 050703
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
303 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS MAINE TODAY PRODUCING OCCASIONAL RAIN DURING
THE DAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST OF MAINE THIS EVENING IT WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING THE RAIN TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE PROVIDING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NY. RADAR INDICATES
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL MAINE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING LOW
PRESSURE INTO NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS EVENING. NGM APPEARS TO BE DEPICTING
TOO MUCH PRECIP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND PREFER THE ETA/AVN
DEPICTION INSTEAD.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BUT
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION VERY SIGNIFICANT. H8 TEMPS WARM 8 TO 10 C
DEGREES ACROSS OUR CWA IN 24 HOURS. AS LOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE...IT
APPEARS THAT WARM FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH DOWNEAST SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND VERY LITTLE COOLING ALOFT...LAPSE
RATES DON/T GET MUCH STEEPER THAN 5.5 C/KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE
LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REALLY WARM UP DOWNEAST...EVEN IF THE WARM
FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH...AND WITH MARINE LAYER IN PLACE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND ALL OF NORTHERN MAINE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN
THE STABLE AIRMASS SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE.

AS LOW MOVES EAST OF THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL START
TO CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAKING IT TO THE
COAST BY 06Z. SINCE FRONT PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW...EXPECT MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST ZONES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID
MORNING ON THURSDAY BUT CLEARING BY AFTERNOON.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE COMING TO A SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND SO
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH SAT AND SUNDAYS FORECASTS YET.

COASTAL WATERS...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA BUT SOME CONCERNS IF WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE WATER SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.CAR...SCA

FOSTER