743 
FXUS65 KVEF 042223
AFDLAS

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
323 PM PDT TUE JUN 4 2002

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN 
AND MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A 
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WITH SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS. THE 
HOTTEST READINGS WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES 
ARE EXPECTED REMAIN JUST BELOW RECORD LEVELS. A GRADUAL DOWNWARD 
TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS THEN FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE 
WEEKEND.  

DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS RATHER STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH GOOD 
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THROUGH THURSDAY. FLAT...EASTERN 
PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY  
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE GENERAL RULE. MOS OBJECTIVE 
GUIDANCE AND GRID POINT DATA ALL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WARMING 
SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH 
TEMPERATURES TRYING TO APPROACH RECORD LEVELS IN A FEW SPOTS. HOT OR 
VERY WARM WORDING SHOULD COVER IT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS UNLIKE 
LAST WEEK...RECORDS ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER (LATE MAY VERSUS EARLY 
JUNE CLIMATOLOGY). DESPITE INCREASED MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS 
CENTRAL NEVADA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS 
JUST TOO WARM AND DRY TO CONSIDER MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

12Z AVN MODEL RUN TRENDING STRONGER WITH GULF OF AK LOW WHICH SWINGS 
INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA FRIDAY. MINOR SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS NV 
FRIDAY (THROUGH THE BASE OF CANADIAN LOW)...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND 
INCREASING GRADIENTS. THIS WILL START A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN 
TEMPERATURES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
 
EXTENDED MODELS STARTING TO CONVERGE TOWARD A CONSENSUS CONCERNING 
STRENGTH AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT DIGS INTO THE 
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY. 12Z AVN WAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER AND 
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS 00Z MRF RUN AND IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH 
UKMET. 12Z MONDAY ECMWF STILL THE DEEPEST AND SLOWEST OF THE GLOBAL 
MODELS LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. BOTTOM LINE WAS TO ACCEPT IDEA 
OF DRY COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH REGION SUNDAY AND GO COOLER THAN 
GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. NOT SURE AT 
THIS TIME HOW MUCH NORTHERLY WIND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO 
MONDAY (POSSIBLY BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS). PREFERRED TO JUST 
GROUP THE FORECAST FOR (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) NOW AND WAIT TO SEE 
IF MODELS CAN COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

NEMETH 

.LAS...NONE.