887 
FXUS61 KBGM 041404
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1000 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2002

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATE JUST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. 
ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE IN SOUTH AND WEST ZONES BASED ON 
CURRENT OBS. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN 
LAKE ERIE AHEAD OF WAVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. TIMING FOR THIS AFTN 
STILL LOOKS GOOD. 

JML

PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...
WITH SFC HIGH OVR NEW ENGLAND AND WARM FRONT ACROSS OHIO VLY FA 
CURRENTLY IN DRY AIRMASS WITH CI. ALL PARTS OF FA WILL SEE PARTLY 
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING BEFORE WRM FRONT APPROACHES REGION THIS 
AFTERNOON. BEST OMEGA DUE TO WAA FORCING AND H7 SHORT WAVE ALONG 
WITH LOW LVL CONVERGENCE OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON OVR WRN AND NRN PTN 
OF FA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CAT POPS HERE BUT DROPPED POPS TO LIKELY 
OVR MUCH OF SUSQU REGION AND JUST CHC POPS FAR SE ZONES. ALL MENTION 
OF PRECIP WILL BE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

TONIGHT...WRM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NRN PTRN OF FA DURING EVENING 
HOURS. AFTER BOUNDARY PULLS NORTH LIFTING MECHANISM RELAX AND EXPECT 
LITTLE CONVECTION AFTER EVENING HOURS. WENT LIKELY POPS IN ALL 
ZONES EXCEPT CHC FAR SE ZONES.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS NOW CONVERGING ON SIMILAR SOLUTION. COLD FRONT 
SWINGS THROUGH REGION DURING EARLY AFTERNOON NRN ZONES TO EARLY 
EVENING ACROSS POCONOS/WYOMING VLY. ETA MODEL CAPE AROUND 1,000 J/KG 
COMBINED WITH H85 40-45KTS WINDS/PWAT AROUND 1.50 AND FROPA AROUND 
MAX HEATING WILL MAKE FOR A VERY INTERESTING DAY. WENT CAT POPS BUT 
LIKELY FAR SE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FRONT STILL IN VCNTY OF POCONOS/WYOMING VLY 
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. REST OF FA DRY BUT SUSQ 
REGION WHERE A LINGERING EVENING SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE. 

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT EXTENDED.

.BGM...NONE.

RRM