115 FXUS64 KMOB 040856 AAA AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002 ...UPDATED TO RAISE POPS TO 50 PERCENT IN ERN 1/2 ZONES... AFTER FURTHER INSPECTION...FEEL THAT CURRENT LOW-LEVEL ABSOLUTE MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH AND WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DESTABILIZE MID-TROP...50% POPS ARE IN ORDER THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN 1/2 ZONES...AND IN PARTICULAR NE ZONES WHERE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING FROM NE. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE QUITE STRONG OUTFLOWS. WILL ADD THIS WORDING TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. OVER NEXT 3 DAYS...CONUS UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND CWFA REMAINS IN TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN TROPICS AND ACTIVE WESTERLIES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE AT 04/00 UTC IS LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ROCKIES INNER-MOUNTAIN REGION THAT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE GRADUALLY EWD OVER NEXT DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...PAC NW JET ADVANCING INTO REAR OF DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED ELONGATES TROUGH AXIS IN A POS TILT FASHION. THIS LEAVES NATURAL DOWNSTREAM WEAKNESS (OVER GLFMEX) IN PLACE ALOFT AND MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DESPAIR ABOUT WHAT TO DO WITH THIS WEAKNESS. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...DEEPLY REFLECTED RIDGE OVER INTERIOR SE US WILL MOVE GRADUALLY E AND WEAKEN LITTLE. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION IN A ZONE OF POS MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER NEXT 2 DAYS IN RETURN FLOW. AS A RESULT...REGIONAL PWS CLIMB TO NEAR 2.0 IN. IT APPEARS THAT PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MODIFY WELL BEFORE REACHING CWFA (SEE UPPER SUPPORT PULL OFF TO NE US). AVN MODEL DOES DEVELOP A GLFMEX LOW PRES THAT INITIALLY MOVES NWD TO A POSTN OFF THE SE LA COAST BY 0600Z...BUT THEN IT MEANDERS AFTER THAT TIME. DO BELIEVE THAT OVER-ABUNDANT LATENT HEAT RELEASE IN MODEL MAY CAUSE INTENSIFICATION TO 1005 MB TO BE OVERDONE. WHAT I DO OBSERVE IS THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP IS ALREADY IN PLACE ON E SIDE OF WHERE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND IF VORTEX WERE SUBTRATED OUT OF MEAN FLOW...IT APPEARS THAT A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION (WHICH AGREES WITH WEAKENING DEEP LYR SHEAR VECTOR). WILL SAY UP FRONT THAT I DO BELIEVE THE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE GRADUALLY NWD...(MAINLY DUE TO CONTINUED INSISTENCE BY MODELS OVER PAST RUNS)...HOWEVER I REMAIN QUITE SKEPTICAL ABOUT MODELS INTENSIFICATION AND WHERE IT WILL GO AFTER 36-48H TIME FRAME. IT IS TRULY A WAIT AND SEE SITUATION. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL SHADE MAV MAX TEMPS TODAY 1-2 DEG(F) DUE TO PRESENCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT 30 POPS GOING. DID NOTE A REGION OF ENHANCED MOIST FLUX CONV OVER NE ZONES TODAY AS PBL FLOW BECOMES ENE AND CONVERGES WHILE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS EWD. MESO-ETA SEEMS TO BE TARGETING THAT AREA FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THE SEA-BREEZE WILL ALSO SERVE TO INTITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WILL SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WITH TIME THROUGH THU (50%) AS LOW APPROACHES AND MOISTENING PROCESS BEGINS. CORRESPONDINGLY...WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS INTO MID 80F RANGE. MARINEFIRE...MAIN CHANGES ARE SCT-NMRS TSRASHRA WED-WED NITE AND THU. WILL ALSO BRING SE WIND SPEEDS UP INTO 10-15 KT RANGE GRADUALLY WITH TIME...AND HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SQUALLS. NO FIRE CONCERNS. PRELIM NUMBERS... MOB EE 091/070 086/073 2332435 PNS EE 091/073 087/074 2332435 DTS EE 086/075 086/075 2332435 GZH EE 094/069 088/070 2332435 2R0 EE 094/069 087/070 2332435 61A EE 094/069 087/070 2332435 .MOB... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE.