654 
FXUS66 KHNX 032201
AFDFAT

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 PM PDT MON JUN 3 2002

THE GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE 
LENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WITH THE STRONGEST BUILD-UPS 
OVER TULARE COUNTY.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING CALIFORNIA THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA DESERTS. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS TURNED NORTHERLY OVER THE 
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS 
SOME SHEARING OF THE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH A DRY NORTH
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION...WILL SEE A LOWER THREAT 
OF INSTABILITY. THE 18Z MESO-ETA FOLLOWS THE EARLIER 12Z RUN IN 
FORECASTING MAXIMUM CAPES OF ONLY 40-50 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN 
SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSITIVE LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE 
REGION. HOWEVER...THE 18Z MESO-ETA PREDICTS CAPES OF LESS THAN 10 
J/KG OVER THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS /WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN 
FIRST TO INITIATE/...INDICATING THAT EVEN THE HIGHER SPATIAL 
RESOLUTION OF THE MESO-ETA IS NOT RESOLVING THE HIGH TERRAIN AROUND 
MOUNT WHITNEY...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE MODEL IS UNDERPLAYING OROGRAPHIC
FORCING.

AT 21Z...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES 
CONTINUED TO RUN 3-7 DEGREES OVER 24 HOURS EARLIER...AND ALREADY 
WERE APPROACHING MONDAY/S HIGHS. THE 18Z MESO-ETA RUN IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ETA AND AVN IN FORECASTING A 4 DEGREE C 
WARMING AT 850 MB THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE SAN 
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 
102...WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS FOR FRIDAY 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UKMET...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL BRING A 
TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE 
EXTENDED AVN KEEPS THE TROUGH MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH NEARLY ZONAL 
FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CONSENSUS DURING THE MIDDAY 
COORDINATION CALLS WAS TO GO WITH SOME COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. 
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES 
FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER COOLING FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 

POPS FAT BFL YNP 0000. SANGER

.HNX...NONE.