587 
FXUS65 KFGZ 031110
AFDFLG

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
404 AM MST MON JUN 03 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA TODAY 
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY 
CLOUDY SKIES BOTH DAYS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY. IN 
ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR 
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER...LIGHT 
WINDS AND A WARMING TREND STARTING MID WEEK. 

.DISCUSSION...MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WINDS IN
THE EAST...ALONG WITH DRY LOW LEVELS AND THE THREAT OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. 
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWING UPPER LOW ENTERING WEST CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE TO ITS NORTH AND EAST. DRY SLOT
ENTERING SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHICH MAY REACH INTO PORTIONS OF
YAVAPAI COUNTY AND WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MID AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS.
LAPSE RATES IN THE 8.0 TO 9.0 DEGREE C PER KM RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. SO WE WILL MENTION THUNDER FOR
MAINLY THIS EVENING. TROUGH SWINGS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL INHIBIT TSTM
ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THIS TROUGH DIGS SOUTH
WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE WILL NEED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...FOR NOW WE WILL
LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST TUESDAY...BECAUSE I AM 
GOING WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE AVN MODEL. 

RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY SO DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE. THROUGH THE EXTENDED...RIDGE REMAINS 
OVER THE AREA...DIFFERENT STORY IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHERE THERE IS 
A TROUGH OVER THE AREA SAT INTO SUNDAY...FOR NOW WE WILL GO MORE 
TOWARD THE MRF AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 

TC 

.FGZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING 
       TODAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 11/14/15/16/19/23/24. 
    
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   TUE     WED        TDY TON   TUE   WED
FLAGSTAFF        072/037 074/039 078/040      000 000 000 000 000 000
WINSLOW          085/048 086/050 089/051      000 000 000 000 000 000
PRESCOTT         080/048 084/050 088/052      000 000 000 000 000 000
PAGE             084/060 086/061 090/064      020 020 000 000 000 000
WINDOW ROCK      077/042 076/040 078/042      020 020 000 000 000 000
CANYON DE CHELLY 084/049 083/047 085/049      020 020 000 000 000 000
COTTONWOOD       091/055 095/057 099/059      000 000 000 000 000 000
GRAND CANYON     076/038 078/040 082/041      020 020 000 000 000 000
GREER            070/036 072/038 076/039      020 020 000 000 000 000
HEBER            078/038 080/040 084/041      020 020 000 000 000 000
JACOB LAKE       068/040 070/042 074/043      020 020 000 000 000 000
NAVAJO N.M.      076/048 075/046 077/048      020 020 000 000 000 000
PAYSON           085/047 089/049 093/051      000 000 000 000 000 000
SEDONA           089/054 093/056 097/058      000 000 000 000 000 000
SELIGMAN         082/040 086/042 090/044      000 000 000 000 000 000
SHOW LOW         081/047 083/049 087/050      020 020 000 000 000 000
ST. JOHNS        081/044 082/046 085/047      020 020 000 000 000 000
WUPATKI N.M.     087/053 088/055 091/056      000 000 000 000 000 000