108 
FXUS64 KHGX 030834
AFDHOU

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2002

SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL COMPETE WITH 
INCREASING PRECIP WATER VALUES TODAY AS GULF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN 
OUT IN THE GULF WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. A FEW 
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MADE IT ONSHORE IN THE MATAGORDA BAY-JACKSON 
COUNTY-MATAGORDA COUNTY AREA...BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY 
OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. THINK ITS PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP 10% 
POPS FOR CENTRAL AND COASTAL GROUPS TODAY/TONIGHT. EXPECT LESS 
SUBSIDENCE TOMORROW AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AS THE 
SEABREEZE FRONT POSSIBLY BECOMES A PLAYER AGAIN. AFTER TUESDAY...THE 
FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLICATED. WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS 
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR 
THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE AVN IS CORRECT...THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT 
THROUGH THE AREA AND SWEEP WELL OUT INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY. BUT 
OTHER MODELS HANG UP THE FRONT IN OR NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA AS AN 
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS 
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE A PRETTY LARGE DIFFERENCE IN BOTH RAIN CHANCES 
AND TEMPERATURES (BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FRONT 
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL FAVOR LOWER TEMPERATURES AND A BRIEF 
SHOT OF RAIN. A SLOWER MOVING FRONT WOULD FAVOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES 
(PROBABLY SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE...INCLUDING 
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS) AND LESS OF A COOLDOWN. FOR NOW...WILL 
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER MOVING SOLUTION WITH A WINDSHIFT 
NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY. FORECAST WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THURSDAY 
AND FRIDAY WITH AN EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION NEAR THE COAST...THEN 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN...MUST EMPHASIZE 
THAT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN AND 
CONFIDENCE IS VERY MUCH ON THE LOW SIDE.

42/38

.HGX...NONE.

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 093/073 092/073 087 002
IAH BB 090/073 090/073 087 113
GLS BB 085/076 085/076 085 113