584 
FXUS63 KIND 030808
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
308 AM EST MON JUN 3 2002

PRIMARY FCST PROBLEM CONTS TO BE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TDA/TNGT WITH 
A SECONDARY ISSUE OF MAX TEMPS TDA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PCPN ACRS SRN 
WI AND LK MI...WELL N OF CNTRL INDIANA FCST AREA. LRG MCS OVR SE MN 
AND WRN WI. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WRM FNT JUST N OF KHUF-KBMG-KLEX LN 
AT 07Z.

00Z MODELS AGN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR FA...AND WL USE A BLEND OF 
THE ETA/NGM/AVN THIS FCST. AGREEMENT ON LIFTING WRM FNT N INTO THE 
EXTREME N PART OF FA BY LT AFTN. BEST MOISTURE CONV RMNS ALG AND N 
OF THIS FNT AS IS DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT. WL KEEP GUD CHC 
POPS NRN FA AND ONLY SLGT CHC SW. AMS VRY WKLY CAPPED THIS AFTN 
DESPITE WRM SURGE. NOSE OF THETA-E RDG AND 850 MB JET ALG WITH 
DIVERGENT 850-300 MB FLOW OVR IL SUGGESTS MCS MAY DVLP THERE TNGT 
AND MOV SLOLY E INTO INDIANA. THIS SHUD MNLY AFFECT THE NRN FA AND 
WL KEEP CHC POPS THERE TNGT...WITH SLGT CHC EVE POPS SW. BYND 
TNGT...WL FCST CHC POPS TIL CDFNT FINALLY PASSES ON WED. IN GENL...
AVN/NGM/ETA MOS POPS IN AGREEMENT AND SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FAR FM 
THOSE NUMBERS.

TEMPS IN THE NE PART OF THE FA WL BE HELD DOWN TIL WRM FNT MOVS N LT 
THIS AFTN...AND THIS AREA SHUD ALSO HAVE THE MOST CLDNS. WL KEEP 
KMIE AREA IN THE L80S TDA...WHILE WRM AIR ALL DAY WL BOOST THE SW 
PART OF THE FA INTO THE U80S. MOST OF THE FA WL END UP IN THE 
M80S...WHICH ALL AGREES BEST WITH THE AVN MOS TEMPS. BYND TDA...A 
BLEND OF THE MOS TEMPS APPRS IN LINE.

.IND...NONE.
ZIMMERMAN