874 
FXUS63 KILX 030656
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
156 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2002

SFC BOUNDARY IS MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS 
MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS STILL LIFT IT INTO EXTREME NRN PTNS OF CWA 
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH AVN IS A LITTLE FASTER IN ITS 
MOVEMENT N...FEEL THAT AN ETA/AVN BLEND WILL BE BEST BET AT HANDLING 
THIS WX SYSTEM.

BOTH CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN QPF PLACEMENT...THOUGH THEY 
HANDLE MCS ALONG IA/MN/WI BORDERS VERY WELL. BOTH TRY TO PLACE SOME 
QPF OVER NERN HALF OF CWA THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL THAT 850 WARM 
FRONT IS ALREADY TOO FAR N FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO AFFECT CWA.

FOR TODAY...WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS IN N AND C SECTIONS...AS 
BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE IN AREA FOR PART OF THE DAY...BUT KEEP SE 
DRY. AS FOR TEMPS...IT WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND 
CLOUDS. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN WELL N OF 
CWA...THUS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S STILL LOOKS GOOD AND 
MATCHES WELL WITH 2 METER TEMPS.

TONIGHT BOUNDARY REMAINS N OF CWA...BUT ONCE AGAIN IT IS STILL CLOSE 
ENOUGH TO WARRENT LOW CHANCE POPS IN N HALF OF CWA...SO NO CHANGES 
THERE.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN EJECTION OF UPPER LEVEL S/W CAUSING THE COLD 
FRONT TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION TO THE EAST...SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS 
FOR TUESDAY...BUT KEEP LIKELY CHANCES IN THE EXTEME NRN ZONES. THIS 
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...BUT HAVE LOWERED TEMPS 
A CATAGORY IN THE N...WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

AVN CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...DESPITE INTIAL 
SLOW DOWN WITH COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. IT BRINGS FRONT THRU ALL OF 
CWA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME LINGERING RWS A POSSIBILITY ON 
WEDNESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAVES MOVE ALONG BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE 
LINGERS OVER AREA. CURRENT ZONES HANDLE THIS WELL WITH CHANCE POPS.

WILL DRY OUT CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH JUST AN EARLY MENTION OF RWS IN 
SERN ZONES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WILL SEE A NICE COOL DOWN 
FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR CHANGES 
TO REST OF FORECAST.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES...

SPI BE 091/068 086/060 076 68335
PIA BE 089/067 082/058 075 68446
DEC BE 091/068 086/060 076 68335
CMI BB 090/068 086/060 076 68335
MTO BB 091/069 086/061 077 68334
LWV BB 092/070 088/062 079 68224

.ILX...NONE.  

$$
BYRD