003 
FXUS65 KTFX 030255
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2002

.SHORT TERM...WILL UPDATE THIS EVENING TO LOWER POPS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST AND TO FRESHEN WORDING. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH RADAR RETURNS STILL OCCURRING
TO THE EAST WHERE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF RESIDES. 00Z ETA CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY PUSH UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND WILL LEAVE SCATTERED POPS IN
PLACE. SURFACE WIND HAS PICKED UP THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DECREASE
AS WE MOVE PAST SUNSET. EMANUEL

.EXTENDED...MODELS NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEDIUM RANGE
DETAILS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY AN UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES INLAND. RESULT IS A SHARPER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. MODELS ALSO WANT TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHERN WYOMING. COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BOTH
ECMWF AND MRF BRING THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP BEHIND TROF PASSAGE. THICKNESS
VALUES TAKE A PLUNGE BY THE WEEKEND. WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BY THE
WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT DROP THEM TOO LOW.

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF EB 042/066 044/075 048 04332
    BEEEE 080/048 077/050 073/047 070/042 074 00012232222
CTB EB 041/063 042/074 044 04432
    NEEEE 077/045 073/048 068/045 066/042 070 00012232222
HLN EB 044/070 043/077 047 04332
    BEEEE 080/049 076/051 073/051 071/046 075 00012232222
BZN EB 041/068 038/075 042 04332
    BEEEE 078/042 077/048 072/046 070/043 074 00012232222
WEY EB 035/061 030/068 035 04432
    BBEEE 070/038 065/037 062/037 060/034 064 11011232222
DLN EB 040/069 039/075 042 04322
    BEEEE 079/044 076/047 073/047 070/045 073 00012222222
HVR EB 043/067 044/076 050 04431
    BEEEE 082/049 077/051 073/051 070/051 074 -0112232222
LWT EB 040/063 041/071 046 04332
    BEEEE 076/049 074/052 072/050 070/045 074 -0012232222=

.TFX...FLOOD WARNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FOR THE GALLATIN RIVER
       NEAR LOGAN.