550 
FXUS64 KMAF 020824
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
320 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2002

CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE ETA AND NGM ARE FORECASTING 
THE TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT 
WHILE THE AVN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE 
UPPER SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM KICKERS.  

DUE TO ANTICIPATED SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL NOT BUY THE CHANCE POPS 
ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE EXTREME WESTERN LOW ROLLING 
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS. 

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND EDDY COUNTY PLAINS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
MAY BE REACHED WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE IN PLACE.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT POPS TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW STILL WEST
OF COUNTY WARNING AREA AND SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE.

WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY DUE TO NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT 
AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. WILL KEEP REST OF THE EXTENDED DRY
AND COOLER FOR NOW BUT DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK IF THE SLOWER ETA PANS OUT.
         
THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST.

MAF  97/70/98/70    0001
LSA  96/68/97/68    0001
6R6  97/73/98/73    000-
MRF  94/59/93/58    00-2
CNM  102/69/100/68  --12

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

12