481 
FXUS61 KCAR 311556
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1155 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2002

.UPDATED...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ADVECTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THIS...WILL ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY FOG ACROSS THE
REGION. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD.

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN MAINE LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO QUEBEC PROVINCE TODAY...DRAWING THE COLD
FRONT TOWARD WESTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE
STATE LATER SATURDAY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND VORT MAX APPROACH
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROFFING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXITING VORT MAX. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND NEXT VORT MAX. MODELS SHOW STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH ASSISTANCE FROM
DIURNAL HEATING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY
DENSE TO OCCUR THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NORTH
TO 70 TO 75 ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES OF 60 TO
65 WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE AND LOW
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BE MOST PERSISTENT.

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 50 TO 55 NORTH...WITH MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN RE-DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR DOWNEAST. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO 70 TO 75 DOWNEAST...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS AGAIN NEAR THE COAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE EXTENSIVE DIURNAL
CU/SC ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

COASTAL WATERS...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY...THEN
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL THEN IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.CAR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

DW