000 
FXUS61 KCAR 280747
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
345 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL MAINTAIN WARM WEATHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...THEN A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...A SUMMERLIKE PATTERN DOMINATES THE EAST THIS WEEK. THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE IS A LARGE HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WHICH IS
CIRCULATING WARM AIR NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. A VERY SMALL BUBBLE HIGH
DRIFTING DOWN FROM CANADA THIS MORNING IS PRESSING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WILL CLEAR AND BECOME VERY WARM
TODAY...BUT SOME CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER IN SOUTHERN AREAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT
DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL THEN BE
MAINLY DRY AND WARM. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AT NIGHT. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY ALONG SOME
COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE THE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE CHILLED TO CONDENSATION
BY THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO DOWNEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. THE ETA AND AVN SEEM TO DISAGREE ON THE COVERAGE
OF THE RAIN WITH THE ETA PRINTING OUT NO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THE AVN
PRINTING OUT RAIN UP INTO NORTHERN MAINE. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE FAVORED DOWNEAST WHERE THE OLD BOUNDARY...DIVIDING MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH FROM SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR TO THE NORTH...MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSHOWERS TO FORM.

AT THE END OF THE WEEK A STRONG LOW WILL BEGIN FORMING IN EASTERN ONTARIO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS ON FRIDAY. THE AIR WILL BE WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST
SIDE OF THE LOW. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL THEN POUR INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD LABRADOR.

.COASTAL WATERS...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST CONCERN OVER THE WATERS WILL BE THE PERSISTING
FOG WHICH WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.

.CAR...NONE.

MCB