000 
WWUS84 KTSA 261758
SPSTUL
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS       
   SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND MOVED 
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WERE 
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVED FURTHER EAST INTO ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL 
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE 
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. FURTHER WEST...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY 
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL 
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS LATE TONIGHT.       

$$

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST 
OKLAHOMA.

.DISCUSSION...

STORMS THAT TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLIER THIS 
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE WEAKENING AS 
THEY PUSHED INTO ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED SURFACE 
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS CONVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED NON SEVERE 
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL 
OUT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME 
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE DAY.  STORMS OUT TO THE WEST ARE 
LIKELY TO FORM A COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH PARTS OF 
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM 
THE SURFACE FOCUS AND THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS...STORMS ARE 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LIFT GENERATED FROM A 35 KNOT 
LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS 
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW FOR STORMS TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS 
THEY AS THEY APPROACH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THE SEVERE 
WEATHER THREAT MAY LINGER AFTER SUNRISE...BUT WILL DIMINISH THE 
DURING MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.             

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC MONDAY

AREA 1...SOUTH OF A BOLEY TO HONOBIA LINE 
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...40
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...5

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT. 
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE 
AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

$$

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA