000 
FXUS66 KLOX 220941
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2002

JUST A LITTLE HINT OF A MARINE LAYER AND WITH WEAK ONSHORE E-W FLOW AND
OFFSHORE N-S FLOW DO NOT SEE ANY MARINE LAYER XCP FOR PATCHY ON THE
CNTRL CST. 

AVN IS MDL DU JOUR AS ETA IS A WAY OFF ON PRESSURE GRADS AND AVN IS
SPOT ON AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE ALL ABOUT PRESSURE GRADS.

AS TODAYS TROF EXITS A SMALL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND KEEP THE N-S FLOW
OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN THE W-E ONSHORE FLOW THE N PUSH SHOULD KEEP AN
EDDY FROM FORMING AND THUS THE MARINE  LAYER SHOULD BE KEPT AT BAY.
LOOK FOR A NICE WARM UP TODAY AND THEN FOR IT TO REMAIN AT THESE TEMPS
THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS AN EDDY IS SHOWN SPINNING
UP IN THE MODELS AND THIS WOULD COUNTER THE OTHER MODEL FORECAST OF
OFFSHORE FLOW BOTH N-S AND E-W WHICH WOULD NORMALLY CREATE A LARGE
TEMP SPIKE. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP FRIDAYS CSTL TEMPS THE SAME AND BUMP
UP THE INLAND TEMPS.

SUNDOWNER IS THE NEXT CONCERN A MILD ON IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW AND WILL
LAST INTO THE MORNING BUT WILL NOT DO MUCH. LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE BETTER
PUSH TODAY OF ABOUT 1MB WHICH MIGHT PUSH IT INTO THE LOWER END OF A
WAD. WILL FORECAST WINDS JUST BELOW CRITERIA AND LET DAY SHIFT SEE HOW
THE TRENDS GO.

SATURDAY LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER THAN IT LOOKED LAST NIGHT WITH THE TROF
HOLDING OFF TIL LATER WHICH SHOULD MEAN THE REAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD NOT APPEAR UNTIL SUN.

NEW MRF FOLLOWS THE TROFS PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY AND BRINGS GOOD
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER THICKNESS SO LOOK FOR THE COOL DOWN TO LAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LAX 000. RORKE.

.LOX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLAX).