000 
FXUS64 KMAF 151900
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2002

PVA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE NV/AZ BORDER HELPED TOUCH
OFF SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT IS NOW MOVING OUT OF THE LBB CWA.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE SOME LEE TROUGHING IN
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.  THIS WILL
IN TURN START VEERING WINDS IN THE AREA TOWARDS A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...AND SHOULD PUSH THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE AREA BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  DRYLINE TAKING SHAPE ON A LINE FROM LAMESA TO
JUST WEST OF KMAF SOUTH TO JUST EAST OF KFST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
AND IT WILL HOVER THERE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT
WITHOUT TOO MUCH PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.  TOMORROW SHOULD
BE WARMER WITH DRIER SURFACE AIR AND A NUDGE UP IN THICKNESSES.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE A FACTOR ALMOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST NM...SO WILL TREND TOWARD LOWER GUIDANCE NUMBERS MOST
PLACES.  SHOULD NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW WITH THE
DRYLINE PUSHING EAST AND WARMER MID-LEVELS.  COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE KMAF AREA BY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
PROBABLY PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
COOL US OFF NICELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  WITH BOUNDARY HANGING
AROUND IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE
BEEN PUTTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THESE ZONES.

FOR THE EXTENDED...WILL MAKE NO BIG CHANGES.  LOOKS LIKE A WARMUP
THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST.

MAF  66/94/63/80    0000
LSA  60/93/60/78    0000
6R6  66/93/68/88    0000
MRF  54/86/57/86    0000
CNM  63/95/64/80    0000

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

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