000 
FXUS61 KBGM 140644
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
240 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2002

ONE MORE DAY OF DAMP WX IN STORE FOR CNY AND NE PA...BUT NOT NEARLY 
AS WET AS PREVIOUS TWO. CUTOFF UPR LOW OVERHEAD WL PROVIDE ENOUGH 
LIFT AND MIDLVL INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIP TODAY...ESPLY 
THIS AFTN AS BETTER WRAPAROUND DEF ZONE SLIDES THROUGH. CANADIAN 
RADARS ACROSS ONTARIO LIT UP PRETTY GOOD WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND WERE 
ALREADY SEEING SRN EXTEND OF INITIAL DEF ZONE POKING ACROSS THE 
FINGER LAKES DOWN TO WY VALLEY WITH SOME AREAS OUTSIDE THIS AREA 
RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE. GOOD NEWS IS THAT STRONG JET ON SOUTHEAST 
SIDE OF UPR LOW IS NOT FVRBL FOR WHAT CUTOFFS TYPICALLY LIKE TO 
DO...HANG AROUND. MDLS AGREE THAT SYS WL BE PULLED EAST BY THIS JET 
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDS AM. MUCH OF THE PRECIP WL BE OVER BY 
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SO WL BACK OFF ON SHOWERS TONIGHT DOWN TO A 
SCT/CHANCE THIS EVENING. VERY CHILLY AIR GETS WRAPPED AROUND THIS 
SYSTEM WITH MUCH OF ATMOS COLUMN FALLING BLO ZERO...ESPLY FOR NRN 
ZONES. A HILLTOP MIX OF WET SNOW OR GRAUPEL SHOWERS EARLY THIS 
EVENING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE IT ALL ENDS. BACK EDGE OF 
SYNOPTIC CLOUDS ALREADY INTO THE WRN LAKES AND MIDWEST...SO PARTIAL 
CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT ESPLY SRN AND 
WRN AREAS. LOW CLOUDS ALWAYS TEND TO HANG TOUGH...SO WONT GET TOO 
OPTIMISTIC.  

NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH WIND UNTIL THIS AFTN WHEN BEST PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WORKS ACROSS AREA AND STRONGER ISENT DOWNGLIDE/LLVL 
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FVRBL FOR MIXING MOMENTUM. WINDS ARE 
CURRENTLY PRETTY QUIET UPSTREAM ATTM. 

MIDWEED LOOKS TO BE CONSIDERABLY QUIETER WITH NOSE OF HIGH PRES 
WORKING INTO THE AREA ON WEDS AND LINGERING TO THURS. SUNSHINE WILL 
WORK ON THE MOIST BLYR TO POP COPIOUS CU FIELDS SO WL CONTINUE WITH 
PARTLY SUNNY AND A MILDER MORE SEASONABLE DAY.

ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST ARE ON THURS NITE WHERE MED RANGE 
MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A CD FRONT WL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA AND 
INTO AN AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN JUICED UP DURG THURSDAY WITH DWPTS 
FCST IN THE LOW 50S. FEEL THAT A CHC SHRA CAN BE INTRODUCED AT THIS 
POINT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THURS NITE AND THIS BLENDS BETTER WITH 
BORDERING FCSTS. AVN KEEPS INSISTING ON LOW PRES DVLPMNT ON THE 
FRONT 
FOR FRIDAY INTO ERLY SAT...AND THE ECMWF IS COMING AROUND TO THAT 
THINKING. CURRENT XTDD HAS CHC PRECIP FOR THESE PERIODS...SO LOOKS 
GOOD. WL JUST UP THE POPS A TAD TO REFLECT A BIT BETTER CONFIDENCE.

.BGM...NONE.

BREWSTER