FXUS66 KLOX 131111
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT MON MAY 13 2002

CLEAR SKIES ACRS THE FCTS AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE XCPTN OF
SOME PATCHY LOW CLDS/FOG ACRS CSTL SXNS OF SLO AND WRN SBA COUNTIES. 
ACRS SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA W-E PRES GRADS WERE WKLY OFSHR AND 
WERE CONTG TO SLOWLY INCREASE. N-S GRADS HAVE INCREASED STEADILY...
AND WERE FAIRLY IMPRESSVE ACRS THE CENTRAL CST. NLY GRADS WERE
ALREADY PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS...AND BELOW PASSES
AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA CNTY. ACARS SOUNDINGS AND SFC OSERVATIONS
FROM LOCATIONS NEAR 950 MB SHOWED TEMPS OF BETWEEN 24 AND 27 DEGS C...
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN ON SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE 850 MB AND 950 MB
TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER TODAY...GRADS WL TURN ONSHR AND INCREASE
TODAY. THIS WILL MAKE TEMP FCSTS RATHER TRICKY TODAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IN THE VLYS...
MTNS AND DSRTS...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGS HIGHER IN 
A FEW LOCATIONS. IF ONSHR GRADS INCREASE MOR SLOWLY THAN INDICATED...
IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME VLY LOCATIONS COULD APCH 100 DEGS.
BLV THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGS OF COOLING ACRS THE CSTL PLAIN TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THAT BECOMES LESS CERTAIN ACRS FAR INLAND SECTIONS...AS A 
DELAY BY AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH 90 DEGS ACROSS INLAND SXNS OF THE L.A. CNTY CSTL PLAIN.

A WK SHORT WAVE WL PUSH ACRS NRN CA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
INTO NEVADA ON TUE...WITH THE SRN END OF A WK TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE FCST AREA. STG NLY GRADS ALG THE CENTRAL CST...WL CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACRS THE CENTRAL CST. 
IMPRESSIVE SFC GRADIENT ACRS SBA COUNTY...AND DECENT UPR SUPPORT
SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP THRU AND BELOW PASSES
AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...AND BLV WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY 
BE NEEDED. 06Z ETA CONTS TO INDICATE EDDY CRCLN DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
AND XPCT MARINE LAYER TO BEGIN TO REORGANIZE. XPCT LOW CLOUDS MAINLY
ON THE CENTRAL CST AND ACRS THE L.A. COAST. BLV MARINE INVERSION
WL BE TOO LOW FOR CLDS TO MOVE INTO THE VLYS LATE TONIGHT/TUE A.M....
BUT INVERSION SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE EDDY CRCLN
CONTG TO SPIN INTO TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH INCREASING ONSHR GRADS
ACRS THE AREA...COOLER MARINE AIR WL SPREAD ACRS THE VLYS OF 
L.A./VTU COUNTIES ON TUE. SO...EVEN THOUGH SKIES MAY START OUT CLEAR...
A STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE WL DVLP...AND TEMPS WL BE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM TODAY. IN FACT...SOME VLY LOCATIONS IN VTU/L.A. COUNTIES MAY BE AS
MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGS COOLER ON TUE THAN TODAY. ELSEWHERE...SMALL 
DECREASES IN THICKNESS VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO A BIT 
OF COOLING IN THE MTNS/DSRTS.

06Z ETA INDICATES A STRONGER EDDY CRCLN TUE NIGHT...SO XCPT WDSPRD
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN MOST CSTL AND VLY ZONES...WITH ADDITIONAL 
COOLING IN THESE AREA ON WED. OVERALL...THE UPR PATTERN SHOWS
RELATIVELY LTL CHANGE FOR THU THRU SAT...WITH WK TROUGH LINGERING
ALG THE W CST AND DECENT ONSHR FLOW. THEREFORE...XPCT MOSTLY MINOR
DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE WEATHER ACRS THE AREA...WITH PLENTY OF
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLDS AND FOG IN CSTL AND MANY VLY LOCATIONS.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL OR POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
W OF THE MTNS...AND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MTNS
AND DSRTS. BY LATE SAT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPR LOW
OFF THE CST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA BEGINNING TO SINK SWD DOWN THE
W CST. AS THIS HAPPENS...HGTS/THICKNESSES ACRS THE AREA WL LOWER
AND ONSHR FLOW WL INCREASE. THIS WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL 
COOLING ACRS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS/DSRTS...
AND SOME INCREASE IN WINDS IN MANY AREAS.

LAX 000. BRUNO

.LOX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLAX).