000 
FXUS63 KFSD 092053
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
350 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2002

LGT SHWRS/SPRNKLS LINGERING BRFLY ERY THIS EVE...ENUF TO 
MENTN...THEN MOCLR. WNDS STG ENUF TO KEEP ADVSY ALSO LINGRNG FOR A 
CPL HRS AND WILL KEEP WND ADVSY PARTS OF MN/IA ZNS TIL 6 PM. THE CLR 
SKIES AND WNDS RPDLY GOING LGT TNGT WILL BRING FROST OR FREEZG TEMPS 
TO ALL OF FCST AREA. WILL GO FREEZE ADVSY IN MOST OF SWRN MN DESPITE 
SOME WATERLOGGED AREA WHICH CUD SLOW TEMP DROP. VERY COOL TEMPS TO 
START...WNDS GOING LGT...AND CLR SKIES WITH THESE CONDS PERSISTG 
INTO DAYBREAK WILL MAKE FOR FVRBL CONDS FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO UPPER 
20S MANY AREAS. FRTHR SW APPCH OF HI CLDS LATE MAY KEEP DROP FROM 
BEING QUITE AS GREAT AS WUD BE. HWVR EVEN OVER SWRN CRNR WHERE CLDS 
WILL COME IN FIRST...MAYBE SOON AFTR MIDNGT...FVRBL CONDS WILL BE 
FIRST TO SET IN WITH INSTANT CLR AND LGT WNDS...AND LWST SFC DEWPTS 
ARE IN THIS AREA.

WE DISCUSSED THE ADVSY SITN AS THIS IS CLOSE TO THE NORMAL LAST 
FREEZE. WITH BOTANICAL ACTIVITY ABOUNDING APLENTY ARND AREA 
INCLUDING LOCAL MERCHANTS...DEEM IT LATE ENUF TO GO FOR IT.

SYS LOOKS PRETTY RIPE FOR A GOOD SOAKER FRI NGT AND SAT...ALL MODELS 
BEING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMNT. IT ALSO APPREAS THAT THIS ONE WILL BE 
W/O ANY SNW OR TSTMS. CUDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS SRN/SERN 
PART OF AREA MAINLY NWRN IA...BUT CHC SEEMS TOO LOW TO MENTN NOW. 
RAIN SHUD SPRD IN FROM THE W/SW FRI AFTN AND FRI EVE. MAYBE AN INCH 
OR SO OF RAIN OVER MOST OF FCST AREA. WILL TAIL OFF RAIN SAT NGT 
THEN GO PTSUNNY W AND DCRG CLDS E FOR SUN. COOL TEMPS AS PER 
GUIDNCE. FOR EXTNDED THE COMNG WEEK SHUD BE WRMR...THO WRMNG WILL BE 
SLOWED BY BACKDOOR CDFNT WHICH AVN HAS A LTL STGR THAN MRF. FOR NOW 
NO GOOD INDICATNS OF PCPN THO WAA PATTRN SETTING UP CUD GET 
SOMETHING GOING BY MIDWEEK. BEST CHC IS LADT DAY...THU...AND FOR NOW 
WILL LEAVE OUT BUT GO MOCLDY.

.FSD...WND ADVY      TIL 6PM     SWRN MN/ERN PART OF NEWRN IA
       FREEZE ADVSY   TNGT       SWRN MN AND BROOKINGS CO
       FROST ADVSY    TNGT       SERN SD/NWRN IA/XTRM NERN NE
WILLIAMS