148 
FXUS61 KCAR 090630
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO REMOVE SCA...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
226 AM EDT THU MAY 9 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WITH WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION ON
SUNDAY MAKING FOR A PLEASANT MOTHERS DAY.

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE USING ETA/AVN COMBO. 00Z GEM SHOWING HIER QPF W/THIS SYSM. WRKZFP
TO YOU BY 300 AM.

HIGH PRES @ THE SFC/ALF WILL KP THGS DRY TDY W/A MILDER DAY IN STORE
FOR THE CWFA. UPPER RDG AXIS MOVES E LATE THIS AFTN W/MSTR ARRIVING IN THE
MID-UPPER LVLS. CIGS DROP DOWN QUICKLY TNGT W/APCH OF OCCLUSION. MAIN AREA
OF LOW PRES SWINGS THRU ONTARIO & OTTAWA PROVS. BEST UPPER LVL SUPPORT
REMAINS IN THESE AREAS W/THIS SYSM. HOWEVER...CWFA DOES SEE STG LLVL JET
(50+ KTS) COUPLED W/THETA E RDG & GOOD WAA THRU H7. MDL QPF COULD BE
UNDERDONE. BEST CHC OF THIS GEARED TWD DOWNEAST/SRN ME WHR BEST
THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED. BUFKIT DATA SHOWS KIS HITTING NR OR ABV 30
W/NOSE OF THETA E RDG & STG LLVL JET ARRIVING BTWN 06-12Z TIME FRAME.
00Z KI PLOT SHOWS 30-35 KI ACRS OH/MO VLYS. EXTRAPOLATIONS WOULD BRING THIS
AIR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER TNGT. SOME HEFTY RAFL PSBL FOR A BRIEF
PD. SOME ISOLATED AMTS ACPHG AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE ?. WILL PLAY IT FOR NOW
BTWN .50-.75 AREAL COVERAGE.

THKG HERE IS THAT THE RAFL SHOULD BE DONE W/NR OR JUST AFT 12Z & THEN SOME
PARTIAL CLRG W/WINDY CONDS. CAA ARRIVES BEHIND OCCLUSION DRNG THE DAY
ON FRI W/THRUX OF CAA ARRIVING FRI NGT. SOME GUSTS ON FRI COULD BE IN THE
RNG OF 30-35 MPH. THIS LOOKS TO BE GEARED MORE SO TWD FRI EVNG. SW WINDS &
PLENTY OF AFTN SUN ON FRI SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT WARMING W/AFTN TEMPS HITTING
60-65 CWFA WIDE. WILL SEE WINDY CONDS CONT INTO FRI NGT & SEE TEMPS
PLUMMET. ALTHO...PLENTY OF MIXING SHOULD KP MINS ABV 32F BY SAT MRNG.

SAT LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED & CHILLY AS CWFA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW. SCU & WDLY SCTD SHRA IN ORDER. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT
SOME FROZEN PRECIP ON SAT...MAINLY OVER THE HIER TRRN.

EXTENDED PD: AFT THAT...MOTHER/S DAY (SUN) LOOKS DECENT W/PLENTY OF SUN
AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. ANOTHER SYSM APCHS THE CWFA EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RA. NO CHGS TO BE MADE TO THE EXTENDED.

COASTAL WATERS: LGT WINDS INCG TO 20 KTS THIS AFTN. WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP
TNGT IN ADVANCE OF OCCLUSION. HARD TO SAY IF LLVL JET WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
DOWN INTO THE BLYR. THEREFORE...WE WILL LEAN W/STG SCA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI.
COULD SEE A LULL ON FRI UNTIL CD FNT & CAA ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY. COULD
SEE GALE FORCE WINDS FRI NGT. THIS IS ALREADY ADVERTISED IN THE EXTENDED.

.CAR...NONE.

JOE