FXUS66 KLOX 061116
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT MON MAY 6 2002

LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO CSTL AND VLY ZONES S OF PT CONCEPTION 
THIS MORNING...WITH THE XCPTN OF THE SANTA CLARITA VLY. ACARS
SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION HAS RISEN TO 
AROUND 2000 FEET...SO SOME STRATUS WL PROBABLY SNEAK INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA VLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. A WEAK EDDY CRLCN HAS FORMED ACRS THE 
INNER CSTL WATERS THIS MORNING. 06Z ETA INDICATES THAT THE 
CRCLN WL CONT INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LVL HUMIDITY VALUES
FCST TO REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE CST. THEREFORE...XPCT THE CLEARING
PATTERN WL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH CLRG TAKING PLACE BY LATE
MORNING IN THE VLYS...AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACRS THE CSTL PLAIN. 
ONCE AGAIN...LOW CLDS WL LIKELY LINGER AT SOME BEACHES S OF PT 
CONCEPTION TODAY. TO THE N OF PT CONCEPTION...AFTER A MARKED DECREASE
IN THE STRATUS COVERAGE LATE LAST EVENING...LOW CLDS HAVE BEGUN TO
EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING...A TREND WHICH IS XPCTD TO CONT. XPCT MAX
TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA TODAY TO BE RATHER SIMILAR TO THOSE 
RECORDED ON SUNDAY. INCRSG ONSHR GRADS WL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDS
IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

A STRONG UPR LOW CNTR WL DROP SEWD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO IDAHO 
TONIGHT AND TUE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WL MOVE INTO CA FROM THE
ERN PAC. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT DEEPENING AND SHARPENING OF 
THE BROAD TOUGH WHICH HAS LINGERED ACRS THE AREA FOR THE PAST DAYS. 
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WL FALL A BIT TONIGHT AND TUE...AND 850 MB 
TEMPS WILL BE DROP ABOUT 3C. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW DEGS OF COOLING 
IN THE MTNS AND DSRTS ON TUE. 06Z ETA INDICATES A STRONGER EDDY CRCLN 
TONIGHT AND TUE A.M.. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT THE MARINE LAYER WL CONT
TO DEEPEN...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING LOW CLDS AND DENSE FOG TO THE 
LOWER CSTL MTN SLOPES. WITH THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER...AND A WK VORT
APCHG THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUE A.M....THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE
ACRS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY S OF PT CONCEPTION...SO HAVE ADDED THAT TO 
THE ZONES. 06Z ETA SHOWS EDDY CRCLN LINGERING INTO TUE AFTERNOON. IT
ALSO KEEPS LOW LVL RH VALUES QUITE HIGH ACRS CSTL AND VLY ZONES S
OF PT CONCEPTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TUE. THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE LINGERING EDDY CRCLN AND THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHR FLOW...
SO WL GO WITH A FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC PARTIAL CLEARING OR PARTLY CLOUDY 
WORDING FOR TUE AFTERNOON. DECREASED SUNSHINE W OF THE MTNS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGS OFF MAX TEMPS ON TUE. ONSHR GRADS
WILL BE IMPRESSIVELY STRONG ON TUE...AND WINDS ACRS THE ANTELOPE 
VLY MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED ADVISORY LVLS. 

06Z ETA INDICATES ANOTHER DECENT EDDY CRCLN TUE NIGHT AND WED...WITH A
CONTD DEEP MARINE LAYER...SO XPCT RATHER XTNSV LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TUE 
NIGHT AND WED MORNING. SOME WKNG OF THE ONSHR GRADS AND WK RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE FCST AREA ON WED SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER
CLRG ACRS THE AREA ON WED. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MAY REBOUND A FEW DEGS
W OF THE MTNS. MED RANGE MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER...BUT WERE RATHER DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. INSTEAD OF A 
SHARPENING TROUGH MOVING ACRS THE AREA FRI INTO SAT...MOST MED RANGE
MODELS NOW SHOW A FLAT RIDGE OR ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE AREA...WITH WKR
ONSHR SFC FLOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE LOW CLOUD 
COVERAGE W OF THE MTNS...AND WOULD PRODUCE SOME WARMING ACRS THE AREA.

LAX 000. BRUNO.

.LOX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLAX).