000 
FXUS64 KTSA 051942
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2002

BIG QUESTION FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS LOCATION AND TIMING OF 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE TWO FOCUS AREAS 
FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FIRST AREA IS 
ALONG DRY LINE FROM WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS 
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS 
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS 
AFTER DARK AND BEGIN MOVING EAST. STORMS LIKELY TO LOSE THEIR 
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...BUT 50 
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CONVECTION GOING WELL 
INTO THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD ELEVATED UPDRAFTS. THE 
WEAKENING MCS WOULD TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT OR 
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SECOND AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT WHICH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 
RED RIVER AT 19Z. 18Z OUN SOUNDING LOOKED TOO CAPPED FOR SURFACE 
BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PART OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH 
THIS EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL THEREFORE BE DEVELOPMENT OF 
ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. 
GIVEN PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT AT 
LEAST SCATTERED STORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND 
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. 

WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE 
MCS REMNANTS WILL LIKELY TRACK LATER TONIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS 
IN ALL OTHER ZONES TONIGHT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM 
FRONT. 

AFTER MCS DIES MONDAY MORNING...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BECOMES LESS 
CLEAR. THERE COULD BE ONE OR MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO HELP PRODUCE 
CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DEGREE OF CAPPING AND AMOUNT OF 
INSTABILITY ARE BIG UNCERTAINTIES. LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION WILL STAY LOW...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT MONDAY 
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY FOR MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION. 

IN EXTENDED...FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO FOCUS SOME 
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS IN 
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 
THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT RETURNS NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH ATTENDANT 
CHANCE OF CONVECTION. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND CAPPED AS FRONT 
LIFTS NORTH INTO KANSAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY SUNDAY AS COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES.  OVERALL EXPECT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 

FCSTID = 9

TUL   68  84  70  85 /  50  30  20  20
FSM   66  86  67  86 /  30  20  20  20
MLC   69  85  70  85 /  40  20  20  20
BVO   63  84  68  85 /  60  30  20  20
FYV   65  82  65  81 /  50  40  20  20
BYV   64  82  64  81 /  50  40  20  20
MIO   64  82  66  83 /  60  40  20  20
MKO   68  84  69  85 /  50  30  20  20
F10   68  84  70  85 /  50  30  20  20
HHW   67  85  69  85 /  30  20  20  20

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.