000 
FXUS65 KLKN 020327
AFDEKO

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
830 PM PDT WED MAY 1 2002

LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE TILTED TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW
US...WITH ANCHORING VORTS...THE MORE IMPRESSIVE VORT NEAR KSBA...
WITH THE OTHER VORT ACROSS CENTRAL UT. IN BETWEEN...A WEAK LOBE
CONNECTS THE TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN NV. WITH THE NVA/SHORT WAVE
RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEX...SKIES
ARE CLEARING ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH SCT060-120 THE RULE. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE S/WV RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FA BY MORNING. FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE TEMPS AND PSBL
FOG FORMATION. TEMP WISE...WITH THE SCATTERING OUT A BIT EARLIER THAN
MODELS PROGGED...ALONG WITH TEMP TRENDS ALREADY A BIT LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE VALUES...A TWEAK 3-5 DEGREES DOWNWARD MAY BE IN ORDER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR NEXT 1-2 HRS TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
FOG WISE...CLD BREAKS DID NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTN...LIMITING THE
EVAP OF THE GROUND-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HIGH COVERAGE PCPN THE LAST
24-36 HRS. MODELS ARE DEPICTING NEUTRAL TO WEAK H85-H7 LIFT UNTIL
LATE WHEN S/WV RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...WITH THE CLD BREAKS
OCCURRING EARLIER THAN PROGGED...WEAK LIFT LOOKS OVERDONE AND
SOME SUBSIDENCE ALREADY PRESENT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN FCST WITH
AREAS OF 2-4SM BR PSBL LATE...ESP IN THE NE FA IN HEAVIEST PCPN
DURING THE LAST 24 HRS.

.EKO...NONE.

ALLEN