072 
FXUS65 KVEF 290452
AFDLAS

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 PM PDT SUN APR 28 2002

SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 
COAST WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 
INCREASING WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND 
MOJAVE DESERT MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND 
UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE 
REGION.

DISCUSSION...UPDATES TONIGHT CENTERED ON HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING 
ACROSS SOUTHERN DESERTS OVERNIGHT AND NEW MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS 
CONSISTENT WITH ADDING GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. ALSO 
MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS SINCE HIGHS TODAY WHERE 
UNDER FORECAST ANYWHERE FROM 3-6 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE 
SIMILAR TOMORROW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION WARMER.

00Z MODELS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KICKING PACIFIC UPPER 
LOW EAST ON MONDAY TO NEAR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY 00Z 
TUESDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BY AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE SURFACE 
LOW DEVELOPS OVER NV. THE MAIN MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SHOULD MAINLY 
STAY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF INYO AND ESMERALDA/NYE COUNTIES MONDAY 
FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. ETA/MESO ETA HAS BEEN 
DOING BEST WITH WINDS PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOWS A WINDY DAY FOR 
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH 25-30 KNOTS FORECAST AT 925 MB. ADDED DETAIL 
OF INCREASING WINDS BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH MOST ZONES. 
OBJECTIVE MOS GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE NGM AND AVN SUPPORT THIS AND 
INDICATE LOW END WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD BEEF 
WINDS UP EVEN FURTHER BUT LACK OF STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT AT 700 MB 
A LIMITING FACTOR. FOLLOWING SHIFT WILL HAVE THE FINAL CALL BUT 
EITHER WAY...A LOW END WIND ADVISORY OR JUST PLAIN WINDY SHOULD 
COVER IT WITH NOTHING EXTREME EXPECTED. WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE 
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LESS WIND TUESDAY (MAINLY BREEZY MOST ZONES WITH 
PERHAPS 20-30 MPH WINDS FOR MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES).

CENTER OF THE LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN 
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS IT OPENS UP AND WEAKENS. TUESDAY 
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT ONLY ACROSS THE 
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH AXIS 
SWINGS THROUGH. FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT SO 
WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING LIKE A SNOW ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH 
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OVER 
HIGHER TERRAIN.

NEMETH

.LAS...NONE.