000 ACUS01 KWNS 280557 SWODY1 SPC AC 280551 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E SBY 15 ENE LYH 50 WNW TRI 20 ENE CKV 35 SE OWB 25 NNE LUK 15 WNW PIT 35 ENE CXY 25 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ERI 30 SSW BGM 15 ENE ISP ...CONT... 20 ESE ORF 30 WSW GSO 25 SSW TYS 55 SSW BNA 15 W MKL 45 ENE PAH 40 WSW FDY 25 WNW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW TPH 15 NE TVL 45 SW SVE 50 NNW SVE 85 N WMC 35 WNW BPI 45 ESE WRL 25 ENE ANW 25 WNW OMA 30 ENE CNK 25 E RSL GLD 25 W 4FC 30 NE DPG 50 NW TPH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CHS MCN 40 ENE JAN 20 NNW CLL 35 WNW TPL 35 S DAL 45 E LIT 15 N PAH 25 E LAF 20 S MKG 50 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW ART 20 WNW ALB 20 NNE BOS. ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA IS FORECAST TO SPREAD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND NEW YORK TODAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF NEW JERSEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND SOUTH OF LOW ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA. STALLING FRONT WILL BECOME MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA BY 29/00Z. ...OHIO VALLEY AREA INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AREA... STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE TODAY. ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG/SEVERE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXTRAPOLATION HAS STORMS FROM WESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AT 50-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. GIVEN RAPID MOISTURE RETURN OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN BOW ECHOES DURING THE MORNING. AS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...IT MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER... DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F HAVE ALREADY ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGH WITH STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AREA. GIVEN FORMATION OF 70-80 KNOT WESTERLY 700 MB JET WHICH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA INTO VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHOES WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS. ..CRAVEN.. 04/28/02