000 
FXUS64 KBMX 250803
AFDBHM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
302 AM CDT THU APR 25 2002

0800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT NEAR A KJAN-KBHM-KRMG
LINE.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT, AND
HAVE WEAKENED AND DECREASED IN COVERAGE SINCE MIDNIGHT.  ALOFT,
SHOWTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THIS MORNING.  LITTLE OR NO SEVERE REPORTS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY...EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WILL TRY AND BASE FIRST PERIOD PROBABILITIES ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

MOVING ON, COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TREK, WEAKENING
AND BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, OLD COLD FRONT MORPHS INTO WARM FRONT AND MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.  NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON
RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1.25 TO 1.75 INCH
RANGE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.  SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY, AND SPREAD
THEM AREAWIDE DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.  BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SUNDAY WHERE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE SUNDAY.  THIS BOUNDARY, FOR NOW, IS PROGGED
TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA, SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

WHATS THE DEAL WITH THE AVN MOS (AKA MAV) NUMBERS FOR FRIDAY?  HIGHS
ARE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE NGM?  HMMMM, MAYBE I AM MISSING
SOMETHING HERE?  WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NGM/ETA
TEMPERATURES AND SEE WHAT PANS OUT FRIDAY.  65

HSV   72  42  73  52  75 /  00  00  --  20
BHM   74  43  75  53  78 /  00  00  00  20
MGM   78  46  79  53  82 /  20  00  00  00

.BHM...NONE.