000 FXUS61 KBUF 242004 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 401 PM EDT WED APR 24 2002 HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DELAY THE ONSET OF THE SHOWERS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE RAIN BEFORE MORNING. A WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING UP ALONG THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS RIDING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE THERMODYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING IN THE WEST AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL PICK TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS BEFORE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE WINDS WILL PICK UP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SHEAR RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS POP IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. MOISTURE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS POSSIBLE AS -10C AIR AT 850 MB FILTERS ACROSS THE LAKE. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKE AND NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. .BUF...NONE. TJP