000 
FXUS65 KVEF 241100
AFDLAS

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
355 AM PDT WED APR 24 2002

SYNOPSIS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE 
AREA WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES TODAY. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY INTO 
FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO 
ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. 

DISCUSSION...BROAD BAND OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS LIFTING NORTH OUT 
OF THE SUBTROPICS ALONG THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE JET AT 
THIS TIME. THIS PLUME IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FORECAST 
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH 
SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE AFTERNOON HIGHS...PROBABLY ON THE ORDER 
OF 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAYS. CLOSED LOW STILL WOBBLING 
AROUND WEST OF PT CONCEPTION BUT SHOULD BEGIN PULLING OUT LATER 
TODAY. ETA AND AVN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO ARIZONA 
FRIDAY. THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE HAD THIS COVERED WELL... 
INDICATING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE COLD POOL LATE THURSDAY 
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. WILL 
HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHWEST ARIZONA VALID THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE 
LOW...REINFORCED BY DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH... WITH TEMPERATURES 
DIPPING TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AVN/MRF NOW COMING AROUND TOWARD THE 
ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND CLOSING OFF ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE WEST 
COAST IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. IF THE MRF TIMING AND 
POSITIONING ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE SOME PRECIP DEVELOP OVER THE 
SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA ZONES MONDAY/TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF 
CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE LOW FORMING MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE WHICH 
WOULD CALL THAT INTO QUESTION.  FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE OLD 
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH AND STICK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/BREEZY AT TIMES 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  

RUNK

.LAS...NONE.