000 
WWUS84 KTSA 240115 AAA
SPSTUL
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
815 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2002

...A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA 
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST 
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE 
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE 
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. 

$$

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS EVENING. 

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING CONVECTION HAS LEFT A LARGE CLOUD FIELD AND RESULTANT COOL 
POOL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  A 
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS THIS 
EVENING...ENHANCING LIFT ABOVE THIS COLD POOL.  ELEVATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHEAST 
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER 10 PM.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD SUNRISE ON 
WEDNESDAY.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC WEDNESDAY

AREA 1...NORTH OF A BRISTOW TO OKMULGEE TO POTEAU LINE.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...50
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...50
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT. 
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE 
AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

$$