000 
FXUS61 KCLE 191828
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
228 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2002

A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE AVN AND ETA MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BOTH
MODELS SHOW AN IMPULSE PUSHING MOISTURE OVER THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.  THEIR IS LACK OF
SUPPORT WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE.  IT APPEARS TO BE
WEAK...THEREFORE I WILL KEEP CHC POPS AS CURRENT 
FORECAST.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY.  MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH AN 850MB JET.  I WILL BRING LIKELY
POPS INTO NW OHIO AND KEEP CHC POPS OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA.

WILL MENTION MIX OF RW/SW ON MONDAY AS 850 TEMPS DIP
BELOW -6.

.CLE...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.


GARNET