000 
FXUS64 KLUB 150706
AFDLBB

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
200 AM CDT MON APR 15 2002

06Z DATA SHOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO, A LITTLE 
DEEPER THAN 6HR ETA FORECAST. LOW LEVEL CROSS-ISOBARIC FLOW IS 
PULLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME, 
SURFACE DEW POINT SHOWS A FAIRLY STEADY GRADIENT WEST TO EAST WITH 
NO WELL DEFINED DRYLINE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATER TODAY, WITH A MORE 
DEFINED DEW POINT GRADIENT SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THIS 
AFTERNOON. TRADITIONAL CONVECTIVE INDICES (FROM ETA FORECAST 
SOUNDINGS) HAVE TOTALS=59 AND SWEAT=527 NEAR ASPERMONT THIS 
AFTERNOON, INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. SAME SOUNDING 
HAS CAPE>2000 BUT ALSO HAS CIN ALMOST -100 WITH A SURFACE PARCEL OF 
89/55. ETA FORECASTS SOME BACKING WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, GIVEN 
EXPECTED FURTHER LOWERING OF SURFACE PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH LATER 
TODAY. DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS 
THEREFORE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. IF STORMS DEVELOP A FEW WILL BE 
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CAPE AND 
SOME MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION, AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS GIVEN FAIRLY 
HIGH SURFACE T/TD SPREADS. WEST OF THE DRYLINE SOME ISOLATED MID 
LEVEL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY, WITH ATTENDANT RISK OF 
LOCAL DRY MICROBURST GUSTS. EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN OR END THIS 
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING, ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE WILL BE IN THE 
AREA AS A POTENTIAL NIGHTTIME FOCUS. ON TUESDAY EXPECT THE DRYLINE 
TO MOVE EAST, LEAVING THE AREA WARM, DRY, AND WINDY AS CONVECTIVE 
THREAT MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.

NO CHANGES EXPECTED FOR DAYS 3-7.

PRELIMINARY:
FRI/TIA 88 55 83 48 / 05 10 00 00  CDS 90 63 87 56 / 10 20 05 00
BNF/LUB 89 59 86 51 / 10 10 00 00  ASP 88 63 87 58 / 10 20 05 00

.LUB...NONE.