000 
FXUS62 KILM 120527
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2002

TROF IS STILL OFF THE COAST AS EVIDENCED BY THE NE FLOW FROM CAPE 
LOOKOUT TO THE EDISTO BUOY...BUT THIS FEATURE IS PROGRESSING W. 
ETA/AVN SIMILAR IN THE HANDLING OF THE TROF...AND BOTH SHOW IT 
WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE ALONG AN AREA OF MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE TIED TO THE TROF. THE 
COVERAGE OF SHRA WAS GREATEST JUST N OF FRYING PAN...AND THESE WILL 
AFFECT THE ILM AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL GO W/ LOW CHANCE POPS 
FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE S/WV OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF REGION WILL 
MAKE LITTLE EWD PROGRESS THIS CYCLE. IT WILL HELP TO SPREAD MID AND 
HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO THE SERN STATES THROUGH TODAY. IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS SELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN HIGH RH VALUES. SE TO SLY 
FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LEADING TO WARM OVERNIGHT 
TEMPS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A SW DIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK W/ 
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE AREA 
WILL HAVE AMPLE MSTR TO WORK W/ THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO 
ACCOMMODATE HIGHER POPS...UNLESS MORE OF THE GULF S/WV ENERGY IS 
ABLE TO SPREAD INTO THE SERN STATES.  

CWF: ABOUT A 4 FT SWELL SHOWING UP IN MARINE OBS. THIS SEEMS IN LINE 
W/ SPECTRA DATA FROM THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL. AN ELY SWELL WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE RIP THREAT.  
THE COASTAL TROF HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO GO LIGHT...HOWEVER AS THIS 
FEATURE MOVES W THE FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TODAY AND 
SLOWLY VEER TO A SLY DIR SUN. WILL INITIALIZE W/ SCEC FOR SEAS... 
OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

FCSTID = 29
ILM   75  61  75  62 /  30  20  20  10
LBT   74  59  75  60 /  30  20  20  10
FLO   75  60  76  61 /  30  20  20  10
MYR   73  62  73  63 /  30  20  20  10

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

PFAFF