000 
FXUS66 KEKA 111542
AFDEKA

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
841 AM PDT THU APR 11 2002

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND MUCH OF THE CWA THIS 
MORNING...ALONG A WARM FRONT AND IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL JET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WERE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS 
AROUND KEKA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST...BUT NEAR 0.20 AT KCEC AND 
BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.20 ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND RAWS SITES WHERE 
OROGRAPHIC LIFT HELPED WRING OUT A BIT MORE PRECIP.  WATER VAPOR AND 
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE ABOUT A 200NM WIDE ZONE OF ENHANCED 
CLOUD TOPS...SLIDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH COAST...WITH ANOTHER 
DISTURBED AREA OF WEATHER NORTH OF 40N...HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD 
TOWARD SOUTHERN OR AND FAR NW CA. THIS NORTHERN FEATURE APPEARS TO 
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TODAY...WITH A BRISK 25KT SW 
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL JET THRU ABOUT 20Z WHICH WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A 
WEAK AND PERHAPS SOMEWHAT DRIER W/NW FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES WILL WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS WELL...AS 
RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO POKE INTO NORCAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF YET 
ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE DESTINED TO AFFECT OUR AREA BY LATER 
FRI. MAXIMUM VALUES OF 850-700MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE HIT AREAS NORTH 
OF CAPE MENDOCINO THE HARDEST THRU 20Z...AND WITH HIGH HEIGHTS AND 
LESSER DYNAMICS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA (SOUTH OF UPPER JET AND IN AREA 
OF 250MB CONVERGENCE) WOULD EXPECT SHOWER CONCENTRATION TO BE 
HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT 
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS EXITING 
AND STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW BEING PUSHED FURTHER NORTH...EXPECT 
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND A GENERAL DRY PERIOD THIS EVENING THRU MUCH 
OF FRI EXCEPT PERHAPS IN A FEW AREAS NORTH OF KACV. AT THIS TIME WILL 
HOLD OFF ON MORNING UPDATE...WITH TIMING OF PRECIP TO WIND DOWN IN 
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS 
AND MAY HAVE TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUD 
TRENDS. 

MARINE SIDE SHOWS BUOYS NORTH OF THE CAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 20KT 
AHEAD OF FRONT AND SHOULD PEAK THERE IN NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE 
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY. THIS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST SO NO 
MAJOR UPDATES FORESEEN THIS MORNING. 

POPS CEC 72246 ACV/EKA 62246 UKI 40013  

.EKA...NONE.

SOROKA