000 
FXUS64 KBMX 022111
AFDBHM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
311 PM CST TUE APR 02 2002

BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTL US WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS AL ON WED.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU AR...AND SHOULD
PENETRATE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF AL BY DAYBREAK WED.  FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE ENTIRE FA BY ERLY WED EVE...WITH SFC RIDGING COMMENCING
IN ITS WAKE.

NEITHER THE ETA OR AVN DEPICT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE LIFT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TNGT/WED.  MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS DECENT HOWEVER...AT LEAST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO STILL THINK SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT ALONG
THE BOUNDARY OVR THE NRN COUNTIES LATE TNGT...THINNING A BIT AS IT
WORKS INTO THE CNTL ZONES DURING THE DAY WED.  ALL IN ALL...CHC POPS
STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE N TNGT...AND IN THE NCNTL/CNTL ZONES WED.
EXPECT SLOW CLEARING FROM THE N LATE WED...WITH CLOUDS HOLDING IN
ACRS THE CNTL AREAS THRU WED NGT.  WILL NOT MENTION SVR WORDING IN
THE ZONES...BUT SBCAPES CLIMB TO AOA 100 J/KG BY 06Z ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...SO SOME ISOLATED STRONG HAIL-PRODUCING
STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVR NW AL LATE TNGT.

TRANQUIL WX FROM THEN ON UNTIL LATE SUN/MON...WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM
REARS ITS UGLY HEAD ACRS THE SE STATES.  THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE
ORGANIZED...WITH BETTER PROSPECTS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY
STRONG TSTMS ACRS AL ON MON.  66

HSV EU 050/058 037/060 040 66520
BHM EU 055/067 040/064 042 66340
MGM EB 058/073 043/066 042 66240

.BHM...NONE.