000 
FXUS61 KCAR 020203
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
903 PM EST MON APR 1 2002

.UPDATED...
UPDATED TO RAISE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 1...AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ZONE 2. SPOTTER REPORTS HAVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING
WARNING CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...MINOR WORDING TWEAKS.

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT.  A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY RETURNING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SE MAINE TO MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING.  ETA & RUC SHOW COLD CONVEYER-BELT PRECIPITATION TO LAST INTO
THE EVENING OVER NORTHERN ZONES.  COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FINALLY
ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  MESO ETA QPF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 TENTHS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z. SNOW AMOUNTS THIS EVENING WILL BE ELEVATION DRIVEN.
EXPECT A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING TO BRING UP TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  WILL THUS DROP WSW.  A SHORT AVE RIDGE BUILD IN BRIEFLY
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOST SUN DOWNEAST WITH SOME CLDS NORTH.  NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO QUICKLY RETURN PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN WITH ETA/GEM BOTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA.  ONCE AGAIN CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING
BUT RAIN DOWNEAST...WITH LOWER THICKNESSES OVER THE NORTH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW.


.EXTENDED...GEM/MRF/ECMWF/UKMET ALL SHOW THE SAME GENERAL SYNOPTIC
FEATURES DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 AND A COMPOSITE OF ALL USED.  IN THE WAKE OF LOW
PRESSURE THE AREA WILL BE IN A COOLER NW FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.  INITIALLY THE NW FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH...BUT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER EXPECT
DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE HIGH TO CREST OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTER WHICH WAA CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

COASTAL WATERS: GALE WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN DROP TO SCAS
LATER TONIGHT WEDNESDAY.

.CAR...WINTER STORM WARNING ZONE 1
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ZONE 2
       GLW.

BT/CN